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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (5238)	4/29/2004 1:36:16 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

>>they still remember their LAST bust, and it wasn't pleasant. << He is right in saying China still remembers the last bust (Chinese usually have a long memory<g>), but not for the reason he mentioned. China took lessons from the way it was dealing with the last bust -- to cut off all the projects at once, including quite a few large energy projects. And the cutoff of those projects directly contributes the current energy crisis in China. So this time China selectively stop lending to the only overheating sectors, such as real estate, steel and cement. And the danger of the social upheaval in China will NOT increase due to the cut off of the above lending. Since the people who might attend the social upheaval are NOT benefit from the current "boom" in those sectors anyway. They are, in fact, suffer from the current boom! Although he did make a good point in saying that "China is far less monolithic and centrally controlled than is generally assumed in the West." Just yesterday Wen ordered to stop building a $1.3 billion steel mill in Changzhou, and return all the illegally obtained land back to farmers. This project should not been started because of environmental and other issues, but the corrupted local officials, separate the project into 22 dif. smaller phantom projects in order to get the loan. And 8 provincial-level officials have been taken down because of this. And who knows? very possible that there are other cases like that. The same rational applies to the protection of the intellectual property and other issues. It is NOT the Beijing central gov. does not make enough effort, it is the local officials do not listen. ========================= Asian Stocks, Commodities Fall as China Slows Economy (Update5) April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks, currencies and commodity prices slumped in Asia after China's government ordered banks not to accelerate lending, halted building of a $1.3 billion steel mill and added restrictions on new projects to slow the economy. quote.bloomberg.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (5238)	4/29/2004 1:43:24 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, GDP was reported 4.2% but in the same report ..... but? The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth. ---------------------------------------------------- Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth. Durable goods purchases decreased 4.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 6.4 percent, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent. Services expenditures increased 4.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 7.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 10.9 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 6.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 11.5 percent, compared with an increase of 14.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.9 percent Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the fourth. We all know that housing grew way above CPI inflation numbers so what is the REAL GDP?