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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (5284)	4/30/2004 2:48:57 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Inflation will be in commodities and services more so health care any thing else manufactured will be stable or fall in price if same quality is expected. This is typical of Stagflation if properly accounted for - Germany is going trough this process as their population growth is shrinking and cheap labor force is next door. Deflation per say will be in selected areas of the world more in those countries were savings is a priority. IMHO the CB’s of the world are destroying the Western World economies as they are far from actual independence and more specifically the US FED. Capacity can be courbed by higher interest rates and giving buying power to those that save. The monetary models those CB’s are using are outdated and not accounting for the substantial advances in international trade, just in time delivery outsourcing and diminishing importance were the “widgets” are manufactured. Presently US savings are wasted on increasing the living standard in India China and other cheap labor countries instead of supporting it’s own. The net result is substantial economic growth in those countries and lower living standards in the US with a more acute rich/poor divide which will ultimately lead to social unrest. (W. Europe is not much different). The main issue IMHO is relentless population growth in ME, SE Asia and Africa. On this subject the world is way past midnight and it seems no one cares. IMHO present population growth is more acute than energy shortage or Kyoto agreement and may bring to our civilization demise if not contained ASAP