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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Investor2 who wrote (2955)5/1/2004 8:01:41 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10065
 
Hi I2:

The DOW, RUT and SPX have done nothing. No downtrend there. SPX looks quite good considering what is going on here. The downtrend has been in the Nasdaq. And that is not good longer term, especially with the sox topping and crapping.
But get ready for a nice rally in the averages this coming week.

Re: " And how about that spike in 30 year T-Bond rates since March?"

I think it is an overreaction. I think the market is approaching the recovery like it has in the past and fears hugely higher rates. I think the surprise in in the other direction because of the secular forces of deflation (not deflation in and of itself). Greenie is between a rock and a hard place. It is tough to raise rates. He knows this because of the experience with Japan's bubble. So I don't expect much along those lines.

SPX has growing earnings and are projected to grow no matter what any of us think about the future. That is good enough to create a foundation for more of the same and maybe a bullish run above the trading range. But I got the feeling we are in the bottom of the sixth inning in this market.