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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12922)	4/30/2004 6:35:09 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

It doesn't differ. If it's too lopsided like it is now, it's best to take notice, although COTs aren't especially useful for timing.

To: mishedlo who wrote (12922)	4/30/2004 10:32:37 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

April Auto Sales Seen Up, Some Regions See Tough Times By Sharon Silke Carty Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES (This article was originally published Thursday) DETROIT (Dow Jones)--U.S. auto sales are expected to be up for April, but some areas of the country are feeling a sales pinch that dealers don't believe incentives can resolve. Light vehicle sales are on track to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, or 16.6 million to 16.9 million, analysts say, up from a year ago when they hit 16.4 million. Some in the industry had predicted sales could go as high as 17 million SAAR, thanks to a strong influx of tax-rebate checks starting to hit consumer mailboxes. "But IRS data show that tax refunds have remained well below expectations," wrote Chris Ceraso, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. The data show that tax refunds are up $11.5 billion year to year so far this season, versus an expected jump of $37 billion. "And there's essentially only one month left." Dealers in Texas are having a tough time with sales. The market is one of the largest in the country in pickup truck sales. General Motors Corp. (GM) has been running a "Truckfest" promotion, giving away $1,000 on some trucks combined with zero percent financing for 60 months. On Thursday, auto retailing chain AutoNation Inc. (AN) also said Texas is one of their more challenging markets. Still, Friendly Chevrolet owner Mark Eddins in Dallas said he's struggling to even match last April's figures. Eddins is puzzled as to why sales have been so sluggish, but he said he thinks the high level of incentives offered following Sept. 11, 2001 have had a pull-ahead affect on the market. Many buyers were enticed to turn in cars earlier in the buying cycle than they normally would have, and now are hanging on to their cars rather than trading them in. "We're into times where we've got to go through that process of getting to where that buying process is vibrant again," Eddins said. But at a Los Angeles-area Ford Motor Co. (F) dealership, one sales manager said his sales have been dismal as well, despite high incentive levels. "It's very slow," said Matt Cavaness, sales manager at Llovio Ford in Pasadena. "The whole area is off." David Healy, an analyst with Burnham Investment Research, said Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG's (DCX) Chrysler group didn't follow GM's lead with Truckfest, and predicted they will lose share because of it. "Tapped-out American consumers probably bought more cars and trucks than were good for them during the late recession, and it's taking some extraordinary price cuts to lure them into buying still more in 2004," said the analyst, who doesn't own shares of the auto makers. "Fortunately for Detroit, consumers 'trading up', along with the companies' aggressive cost cutting, is rebuilding the bottom line," Healy said. -By Sharon Silke Carty, Dow Jones Newswires; (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 30, 2004 07:38 ET (11:38 GMT)