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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel who wrote (13385)	5/3/2004 6:12:01 PM
From: tech101	Respond to of 13565

SIA to Raise IC Forecast Despite Drop in Fab Utilization Silicon Strategies 05/03/2004, 1:15 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif.--The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) plans to raise its IC forecast for 2004 despite a possible drop in worldwide fab-capacity utilization in the first quarter of this year. Previously, the SIA said the semiconductor industry would grow by 19.4 percent in 2004 over 2003. In 2003, the IC market hit $166 billion, up 18.3 percent over 2002, according to the SIA. "We expect growth will exceed our 20 percent forecast in 2004," said Doug Andrey, principal industry analyst for San Jose-based SIA. "We are saying that this is a broad-based recovery," Andrey said in a conference call on Monday (May 3). The trade association did not elaborate on the exact growth figure for 2004. Andrey said the SIA would not disclose the figure until June 9. Until then, "We don't want to short-circuit our forecasting process," he said. The new forecast follows strong chip sales for the first quarter and the month of March, according to figures released on Monday (see May 3 story). In 2004, cell phones, PCs, digital cameras, and DVDs are projected to grow 10 percent, 11 percent, 14 percent, and 20 percent, respectively, according to the SIA. Wireline is growing much faster than projected. Originally, the sector was supposed to show flat growth. Now, it will grow 5-to-10 percent, according to the SIA. On the downside, fab-capacity utilization was at 92 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, Andrey said. The figure is based on numbers from VLSI Research Inc. of Santa Clara, Calif. "Capacity utilization may drop below that (in the first quarter of 2004)," he said. And at the same time, product demand was mixed in March. Worldwide chip sales for March were propelled by growth in analog, digital signal processors (DSPs), and microprocessors, but flash-memory lagged the field, according to a new report from Pacific Crest Securities Inc. (see May 3 story). siliconstrategies.com

To: Daniel who wrote (13385)	5/13/2004 2:16:56 AM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

Re: FABLESS chip cos. are in trouble by: harleydogrules (M/Silicon Valley) 05/12/04 10:38 pm Msg: 196885 of 196897 At the annual meeting today George drove this message home loud and clear. Ateml is able to grow at 1.5x the avg. industry run rate because it is not subject to the "fabless" model. It is able to continue this run rate with modest equipment purchases at least through 05 and up to $3B in revenue. Other companies desiring to increase production either have to build it themselves or find excess capacity elsewhere which isn't easy. Atmel predicts that they are in the absolute sweet spot and in the first 20% of at least a 2 yr. if not 3 yr. boom cycle. Barton was even more impressive today (because of the language barrier) and is clearly the new fair haired boy at Atmel and stepped up to answer just about every audience question. What was impressive about Barton today is that after only one year on the job, he is calling out dramatic sequential margin improvement on top of the most dramatic margin increases we have seen over the last two quarters for the next 7 quarters. This is either incredible visibility or incredible stupidity that would wipe out (IMHO) share value and undoubtedly his career if he is wrong. Given that they have blown away all recent projections across the board and from the street, I have to believe that Barton is hugely bullish because and willing to dish out these predictions because of three things: (1.) he has his fingers on the pulse of the customer order pipeline and it is growing swiftly, (2.) because they are starting to see pricing increases that are not modeled for, and (3.) the shrinks they are going through will put them in even a greater sweet spot than what is currently modeled for. 90% of this quarter was already achieved at the last conf. call so maybe we are looking at 130-140% of last quarter already. Exciting times to be long on this baby. The share price is a true gift if you have the patience to roll with all the crap in the universe that has nothing to do with this company making money and that can, on occasion, knock the legs out of the market. finance.messages.yahoo.com