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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (12934)	4/30/2004 10:35:10 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Don't you need steel and cement when you build infrastructure?. In the immortal words of the warden in Cool Hand Luke, "What we have here, is a failure to communicate." And the cognoscenti think this will be a "soft landing?".

To: ild who wrote (12934)	4/30/2004 11:17:56 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Apr 30 2004 10:01 trotsky (@Droke on China) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i completely agree with him on one major point: there's so much mainstream belly-aching about China's boom ( even as i type this, yet another 'strategist' expounds on the 'danger' on TV! ) that it is HIGHLY unlikely that is over. as will be seen, before China's boom is really set to turn into a bigger bust ( as opposed to a smaller, corrective move ) , all those mainstream commentators will have embraced it fully, and declare it invincible. at an earlier stage, i was pretty worried myself that the end was close, since the 'China story' seemed to be making such waves all of a sudden. but now - nothing but negativity! meanwhile, China has once again been the fastest growing major economy in the world in the first quarter. Date: Fri Apr 30 2004 10:33 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i've noticed that many of the advisors who were unanimously bullish at the XAU top and threw out wild target prices at the time, are now equally unanimously bearish, AFTER a 30 point decline. needless to say, not one of them has deigned to look at a tired old indicator like the RSI - which has reached such an oversold level very rarely over the past 2 decades, the last time over 6 years ago. now, the oversold reading from 6 years ago occurred in the depths of a vicious bear market. result? a 30 point rally in the XAU. next point of note: this time, i'm inclined to agree with one of Sinclair's points, namely that those bearish advisors are in fact fathering the ST weakness we're seeing. i deduce that from the fact that for several days in a row, small traders have been net sellers and big traders net buyers in the sector. in short, if the objective of the bear raid was to relieve people of shares in the sector at the lowest possible prices, it has been achieved, or is in the process of being achieved. otoh, there is also still a certain modicum of complacency detectable. but going back through the data, one notices that this was the case at last year's March low as well. trotsky (frustrated, 9:13) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "It remains unclear why the borrowing plan was scrapped after it won support from key politicians, including Ahmad Chalabi, who heads the Governing Council's finance committee." ROFLOL! i didn't even know that - the old fraudster actually heads the FINANCE COMMITTEE? good grief! the guy stole millions from Jordanian bank depositors, and in fact, from US tax payers as well ( he was paid very well for spreading completely fabricated Iraq 'intelligence', and STILL gets paid as it were ) . well, who else should head the 'finance committee'? he's obviously eminently qualified....