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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (41571)	4/30/2004 12:03:39 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793957

Cold on Kerry Bad news for Democrats. — Robert Moran is a vice president at Republican polling firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates. He is an NRO contributor. James Carville's Democracy Corps publishes its survey research on a regular basis and offers Democrats their take on the political environment and how they can best compete. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a firm with a solid reputation, conducts the surveys for Democracy Corps. Whatever one may think of the Democracy Corps' liberal viewpoint, James Carville, and Democrat polling firms generally, these surveys are very useful to Republicans and conservatives for one simple reason — they advocate Democrat strategy and messaging and reflect the political thinking of smart Democrats. In other words, reading these surveys can give us a sense of what the enemy is thinking. With this in mind, a look at the April 19-22, 2004, survey is very illuminating. While the analyses tend to be more press-release hyperbole than dispassionate data review, it is worth reading this particular analysis because it points to the real finding of the survey — the finding that Washington Democrats are coming to accept with dread: John Kerry is being rapidly defined in this campaign, and if this trend continues he will be unelectable. Before reading either the survey or Democracy Corps' analysis, though, it's worth reviewing the real takeaways from this survey. 1. Kerry's image has been "flipped." "Flipping" your opponent simply means giving him more negative opinions than positive opinions. Most candidates are never flipped. They are (1) able to define themselves to their base and (2) able to reach out to the middle before their opponent can destroy their credibility. Candidates with public images that are more negative than positive defeat their opponents about as often as the Washington Generals defeat the Harlem Globetrotters. There are many ways to measure a candidate's image. Some pollsters ask survey respondents if they have a positive or negative impression of their candidate. Some use favorable and unfavorable. The Democracy Corps uses a 0 to 100 scale with "warm" (positive) being closer to 100 and "cold" (negative) being closer to 0. Recent statewide polls have shown Kerry's image at a 1 to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio — not the sign of a winner. But the Democracy Corps poll is even more dispiriting for Team Kerry. In this survey 37 percent give Kerry a "warm" rating and 40 percent give him a "cool" rating. His mean rating is 46.1. By comparison, 49 percent give Bush a "warm" rating while 41 percent give him a "cool" rating, and his mean rating is 52.9. Interestingly, Dick Cheney (47.1), the National Rifle Association (52.8), and "pro-life, anti-abortion groups" (52.7) have warmer ratings than John Kerry (46.1). The Democracy Corps admits that Kerry's image has "continued to weaken" due to Bush's "heavy negative advertising," but they tell themselves things will be okay because "John Kerry has not introduced himself nationally." They go on to state in their memo that "Kerry is sure to move up as he sets out his positions, messages, biography and leadership qualities, which will surely happen." Didn't Republicans tell themselves the same thing about Bob Dole in 1996? This is obviously self-deception. The Bush team is introducing John Kerry to the voters right this minute, and the introduction is not pleasant. As with life, candidates only get one introduction. The Bush team is doing this introducing for Kerry. 2. The Democrats' 2004 Strategy: Pink Slips and Body Bags. If there was any doubt that the entire Democratic strategy for 2004 consists of hoping more Americans lose their jobs at home and more Americans die in combat in Iraq, this survey should put those doubts to rest. Questions 54 through 61 ask participants to tell them how serious problems like "unemployment," "job losses to China and India," and "the growing gap between the rich and everybody else" are. This does not suggest an uplifting Democratic campaign. Even more instructive is a question sequence that asks voters to report how much doubt various news items raise about George W. Bush. Question 68 recites the bad news from the recent recession and raises the issue of outsourcing: "The American economy has lost over 2 and a half million jobs during the past 3 years, and most of the losses are in manufacturing jobs, which are still not being created. Many represent the outsourcing of jobs to India and China that were formerly done in America. Many of the newer jobs in the US are now offering less pay and benefits." And question 67 directly addresses Iraq: "America has already lost more than 700 soldiers in Iraq, with over 3,200 wounded. In April alone, we've lost over 100, the worst month of the war. The resistance has spread to more areas of the country. The war has cost over 140 billion dollars, with 19 billion dollars for rebuilding Iraq. Next year will cost at least 50 billion more dollars." Al Jazeera or the Democracy Corps? You make the call. They seem to be pulling for the same outcome in Iraq. It's sad when a political party needs more Americans to lose their jobs and more American soldiers to die so that it can have glitzy White House parties for its Hollywood moguls again. The Democratic strategy for 2004: Pink Slips and Body Bags. 3. Bush support increased as a result of the survey. After throwing everything at Bush, talking down the economy, and attacking the Iraq War, the presidential ballot moved from Bush 49 percent-Kerry 48 percent to Bush 50 percent-Kerry 46 percent. This was apparently such a downer for the Democracy Corps that they decided not to discuss it in their analysis. The Democracy Corps threw everything at the Bush administration in this survey. They harped on job losses, Iraq casualties, the deficit, and health care. They tested two different Kerry message tracks. They probed Bush's image for weaknesses, and they simulated attacks from both sides. And what did they get? Kerry lost ground. The Democracy Corps poll certainly has some bad information for the Bush team, but that information is already baked into perceptions of Bush as a candidate. Voters already have all the information they're going to get about George W. Bush. On the other hand, they have yet to learn a number of things about John Kerry. Kerry has been introduced to the public in no small measure by the Bush campaign, but the public does not yet know that Kerry opposes the death penalty generally and has voted against applying the death penalty to terrorists who kill Americans abroad. And they are only now beginning to learn about the liberal voting record he compiled in the Senate. These things are not yet baked into public perceptions of Kerry as a candidate. The Democracy Corps survey was a snapshot of a deteriorating Kerry image. It will be interesting to see what they find after another month of Bush advertising. nationalreview.com