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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (49243)	5/1/2004 1:28:11 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Neither side of the coin seem to be adequately addressing the basic premise of the book. That we are about to need to radically readjust our expectations because the cheap and abundant energy-driven party is over. The reality of the 21st Century is going to be ever increasingly severe wars and resentments over the theft of resources by the rich world, such as we are currently witnessing in Iraq.> Ray, the 1950s Yank-tank enormous cars were were able to function only because of very cheap oil found in the USA. While there was whining and moaning about the sub-compacts, people figured out that they didn't really need such enormous vehicles and the resulting cost. Others figured out how to dramatically improve the power, comfort, efficiency and cleanliness of smaller vehicles. The result is that oil is no big deal in the USA economy, although King George II, Cheney and co probably still think oil is what it's all about and are involved in wars to secure the middle east, which ironically will destabilize their supplies because they didn't do what was needed and get the UN reconstituted into something sensible [which would exclude the PNAC as the major influence] and hand the WMD issue to them to deal with, along with messes such as Israel/Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan [which is back to being a big mess]. Don't worry about a shortage of oil. There's a LOT of sun in Death Valley for example, which with photovoltaics can be used to hydrolyze water and the hydrogen can be used to power SUVs. Or, the electricity could be used to power superconductor levitated, electronically/photonically controlled, high-speed vehicles [700 kph]. The world isn't going to grind to a halt because of oil shortages. The price will just go up until people do something else other than buy oil. Saudi Arabia and Iraq have a LOT of oil and there's a LOT of gas and heavy crudes too, not to mention coal, so they won't want to price their products off the markets with the result of them being abandoned in the ground as they are superseded by new technology. Expect price falls to make fossil fuels competitive again. Mqurice