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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (13029)	5/1/2004 12:23:05 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

I think the dollar strengthens eventually on such chaos because the money supply takes back all of its debt expansion via liquidation and debt cancellation. the only problem is, if you look at US govt's debt, surely they could default on their "official" debt of $7 trillion if they felt like it, but i don't think they can default on their unofficial (but no less real) $51 trillion NPV in obligations toward future retirees. basically if they tried to do this i think there'd be a "Grey Revolution". so instead, the more palatable path will be to try to reduce the value of the debt through inflation. though i still think oil may do better than gold because it is basically economic oxygen. also, it seems we will have a huge drawdown in production, whether it is over a period of 10 years or 30. and it is hard to imagine that this drawdown will occur in a stable price environment.

To: gregor_us who wrote (13029)	5/1/2004 12:59:45 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I can see gold working in a state of Chaos, where everything is "going down" as you say. But I have doubts about where gold winds up standing after such conditions play out. no question. at some point, when some fiscal responsibility is adopted, gold will be a sell. I just hope I can recognize when that is. <g/ng> I think the dollar strengthens eventually on such chaos strengthens against what? against other currencies? not until the chaos is resolved. against assets in this country? yeah, at the bottom, after the debts have been liquidated, it will have no where to go but up. am I missing something else? I think the Argentinians and other South American Chaos examples...then they actually tried stocks--because at least stocks represented real assets. stocks as currency? what are you saying? stock markets go up and down even in currency crises. I read the other day (can't remember where) that markets in weimar germany had huge moves up and down, including down 50%, while the currency was being obliterated by hyperinflation. yeah, stocks represent claims on hard assets, but what are they worth and will they hold their value against other currencies?