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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (69302)	5/2/2004 11:23:07 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Gary, you make good points, but I just don't see it happening, yet. The trend is your friend, and trends in currencies usually last much longer than anybody anticipates. The Fed has to raise 100 bp to counter outflows to Eurozone. I doubt they will do it this year, or next. You could be right, but I just don't see it happening. Foreign folks jumped on the bond bandwagon, while rates in the US collapsed, so the dollar rallied until 2002. Why on Earth would they buy bonds when rates rise? Here is a table of rates as they are now. Usually, foreign CBs at worst follow the Fed (usually LEAD the Fed) in raising rates, as they seem to be more prudent in containing bubbles. Here are rates in the US and other G7 countries now. I believe, US has a trade deficit with all of them. Australia 5.25% UK 4.00% Eurozone 2.00% Canada 2.00% USA 1.00% Swiss 0.75% Japan 0.15%