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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (285900)	5/2/2004 10:37:34 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

It's extremely dark out there, Michael. I think we are in the very early stage of the change over to Gold's second leg. US market rates of interest have been rising for a little over a month. Stock markets are stagnant but have not yet broken down. The US Dollar is still in its bear market rally. Commodity prices, and Gold and especially silver prices, have corrected viciously. This is the hard period. The strong men of hard money (the men who know what they are doing) have all long since taken their positions in Gold. Now, they are just waiting. It is the people in the middle (like myself), all those of some real physical wealth and also some real financial wealth, who will find the change over a bit of a trial. But as long as such people have few, low, or ideally no debts - they will all come out just fine. Over the next 10-odd years, we are heading for a fundamental breakdown, over and above the world wide deep recession which is now to be seen just over the economic horizon. The deep recession can be read directly off the now climbing market interest rates, the huge boom in commodity prices, before the present correction, and the fast approach of impossible to ignore jumps in consumer prices. That in itself ensures a DEEP recession. No. I won't reinvest in the gold mining stocks until I see XAU 57-58 and then I will only initiate half a position. No. They are broken. This leg is over. Yes, "Price" could change my view. But when they fall this hard, I severely doubt new highs are coming any time soon. Actually, some of the gold mining stocks are great shorts on rallies.