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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (285902)	5/3/2004 9:17:08 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't know, rarebird is too sure of himself, too stentorian in his tone. He's got it all figured out, mapped out, but the world is never so rational or predictable. Who ever knows what the market will do and when? Goldbugs were all so happy this last year but in terms of pure profit stocks generally did better than gold. Your approach of looking at if/then scenarios and identifying potential trends, without assuming you know for sure, or know if/when/why for sure either, makes much more sense to me. It's not having it both ways, it's simply being a trader--what is the problem with that? Although when someone like Buffett essentially says he will continue to short the $ by buying foreign currencies, that's interesting to me, just like when Templeton called for a 30-40% drop in the $ and suggested investing in foreign currencies. But that's only partly because these guys are obviously really good at doing what they do; it's also because I figure they are hooked into decision making at a top level globally, so they know what the plan is. I tend to look slightly askance at the big doom and gloom scenarios. That seems the provenance of those who are doing well in a basically affluent culture (ours), they enjoy the luxury of doomsday scenarios. Maybe all their $ and comforts have not made them happy enough, but potential disasters are thrilling. -g