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To: orkrious who wrote (285905)	5/3/2004 8:02:47 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 436258

hussman like gold Message 20085742

To: orkrious who wrote (285905)	5/3/2004 11:18:14 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I'm completely out of Gold Mining Stocks at the moment. I sold all my positions on Friday April 9 during the last 15 minutes of trading. Some of these stocks I held for 5 1/2 years, buying the dips or swan dives. Ordinarily, I don't place that much value on the COTs in Gold since gold is primarily a speculative currency. But I got very spooked when I saw a 200K commercial short position. Moreover, the USD was up about 5% from the lows, silver was going parabolic and the HUI/XAU did not signal another leg up. The icing on the cake came for me when the POG made a new decisive intraday high during the day (above $430) and then closed negative. I'm not sure what you call that, technically speaking, but I knew that was a danger signal and that I had to get out. It's clear to me that the Miners are here correcting the entire advance from the October 2000 lows. The problem with Gold Mining corrections is that they have a tendency to become quite severe. I've seen some of the miners give back all their share price gains over an 18 month period within a couple of months. After having experienced that before, I had no need to go through that again. It is not very productive. Moreover, there are some healthy gaps down on the charts of the Mining stocks. At best, it tends to take an extended period of consolidation before they will hit new highs. At worst, it signals further gaps down and a temporary major change in trend. For myself, I'd like to see some healthy sidewise action for a while before I go long. Just track a few of the miners like GFI, ABX, PDG and watch them closely. "Price" will tell you when the decline is over. They'll rally 3%-5% and then come back and find support around the most recent low. They'll do that a good 3-4 times, making marginal higher highs and higher lows in the process. That's the time to go long the miners. Not now. There is still great risk and danger for further declines. There is no need to rush back into them here. I'd rather wait for confirmation that the decline is over.