Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SGJ who wrote (15272)	5/4/2004 3:58:09 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207041

The carry trade in bonds that's been so successful for banks and others to play... requires a slow unwinding of the interest rate spread. Nobody knows how these massive derivative positions will effect the markets as they unwind and what pressures they will apply to the system. Doomers expect this unwinding to cause serious disruptions and produce rate increases in an uncontrolled manner... shocking the system into a crash. If that doesn't happen then they expect the world to withdraw financial support by decreasing their purchases of our debt, because of the dollar and the size of our deficits. In these particular visionaries brains.... Gold is the "milk and honey." I doubt either of these scenarios will occur. IMO... Into 2005 there will remain a sense of confusion and uncertainty... while the imbalances of the last 2 years are straightened out. Confusion about the economy and its direction will keep traders bouncing in and out of positions... Uncertainty about a "mess-other-stuff" will make trading a Lot'ta Fun. No Crash and very few problems adapting to a cycle of modest incremental rate increases.