A Democratic Senate?
Even if George W. Bush wins reelection, the Democrats now have a chance to recapture the Senate.
- Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
THE ODDS are still against it, but Democrats now have a legitimate shot at winning back the Senate in this November's election. They've already done two things well: recruit good candidates, especially in Republican-leaning states, and avert costly primary fights. Democrats need to net two seats if President Bush is re-elected or only one if John Kerry wins the White House. Either way, that would flip the current 51-49 Republican advantage to 51-49 for Democrats. It's now possible.
To pull it off--and assuming a two-seat gain is required--Democrats must achieve three goals. First, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle must be re-elected in South Dakota. Second, Democrats have to limit their loss of Senate seats in the South to two. Third, they need to capture all four of the vulnerable Republican seats. Capturing the Senate won't be easy, but Democratic chances have dramatically improved as the four Republican seats turned soft.
What would a Democratic Senate mean? If President Bush is re-elected, he would face a hostile body that could bottle up his nominees--not just conservative judges--and block legislation to make tax cuts permanent and reform Social Security. If John Kerry wins the White House, he'd have a friendly chamber to offset the Republican House, something Bill Clinton lacked in the last six years of his presidency.
START WITH SOUTH DAKOTA. Bush is certain to win the state overwhelmingly. Daschle is more vulnerable than Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, who was reelected in 2002. Johnson narrowly defeated John Thune, now Daschle's foe and by far
the best candidate Republicans could field. Daschle can't credibly argue he's cooperated with Bush, as Johnson did, and he's more visibly liberal. The race is a tossup.
IN THE SOUTH, five Democratic senators are retiring: John Edwards in North Carolina, Fritz Hollings in South Carolina, Zell Miller in Georgia, Bob Graham in Florida, and John Breaux in Louisiana. Republicans are favored in Georgia and South Carolina, but North Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana are tossups.
In Georgia, Rep. Johnny Isakson leads in the primary race, but may face a runoff with Herman Cain, an African-American conservative. Either would be expected to defeat any Democrat. In South Carolina, Democrats have united around their best possible candidate, state superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Republicans have a nasty primary on their hands. But South Carolina has trended Republican more than any state in the last two decades and the GOP nominee will have the upper hand.
North Carolina Democrats had high hopes for Erskine Bowles, a former White House chief of staff under Clinton, in 2002, when he was trounced by Elizabeth Dole. This year, he faces Rep. Richard Burr, who has united Republican support from moderates and conservatives. This contest is too close to call, but Bush is very popular in the state and that may aid Burr. In Florida, both parties have large primary fields, so the outcome will depend on who wins the nomination. The candidate who's fared the best in polls is Democrat Betty Castor, a college president. The primary election is August 31.
In Louisiana, the election may turn on who faces Republican Rep. David Vitter, an impressive candidate. Chris John, a moderate-to-conservative Democrat U.S. House member, would pose a greater threat to Vitter than state treasurer John Kennedy. Candidates of both parties run together in the primary and there's a remote chance Vitter could get 50 percent in the first primary and avoid a runoff, which would be tougher to win. By the way, Bobby Jindal, who barely lost the governor's race last year, is expected to win Vitter's House seat.
NOW FOR THE FOUR weak Republican seats. Democrats have excellent candidates in each, but they'll face a Bush tide in Alaska and Oklahoma and a Republican edge in Colorado. In Alaska, former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles is set to run against Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, appointed to the seat by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski. Murkowski, however, has to survive a primary challenge. Both candidates have weaknesses. Knowles was twice elected governor without exceeding 50 percent and now must explain why Democrats are blocking oil exploration in the Alaska National Wildfire Refuge. How Murkowski got her job--the father-daughter thing--is an issue. Polls are close.
Democrats are lucky in Colorado, where the best Republican candidate, Gov. Bill Owens, isn't running, but the best Democrat, Attorney General Ken Salazar, is. Owens and national Republicans talked Pete Coors of the beer family into the race, but he must defeat Rep. Bob Schaeffer for the nomination. It won't be a pleasant primary and Salazar is a
popular Latino. Colorado, though, has been trending Republican.
A moderate congressman, Brad Carson, is the choice of Democrats in Oklahoma to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Don Nickles. He's the best candidate Democrats have offered for any statewide office in years. Ex-Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys is the favorite of the Republican establishment, but he's challenged by obstetrician Tom Coburn, who honored his term-limits pledge and left a House seat in 2000 after six years. The outcome on November 2 is anybody's guess.
In Illinois, Republican Sen. Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after one term in a state that Bush may not contest. Barack Obama, an African-American lawyer, won a wild Democratic primary, and Jack Ryan, a former investment banker who has taught in an inner-city school, gained the Republican nod. Ryan is an extremely attractive conservative, Jack Kemp-like in his views, but his divorce has gotten press attention. The release soon of court papers in the case may resolve lingering questions and allow the Ryan campaign to take off. For now, Obama is ahead, but his extreme leftist views are not yet known statewide.
So here's the bottom line as of today: Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate, but Democrats have a real shot at an upset, which wasn't the case only a few months ago. And remember: Campaigns often tilt to one party or the other in the final weeks. In 2002, the tilt was to Republicans. In 2004, Democrats are positioned to take back the Senate if the tilt goes their way. |
