To: American Spirit who wrote (1237 ) 5/4/2004 5:30:54 PM From: Glenn Petersen Read Replies (1) | Respond to I would expect the election to be tight until the Democratic convention in July. Kerry will probably come out of the convention with a five to eight point lead. August hits and everyone focuses on the Olympics. Nobody cares about the election. Kerry's numbers fade a bit, maybe down to a two to four point lead. The GOP has their convention at the end of August and Bush comes out with a five to six point lead. At that point, people start to focus.story.news.yahoo.com Poll Finds Kerry's Image Took Beating A poll released Tuesday found that Americans were slightly more likely to say they hold a favorable view of Kerry, 38 percent, than an unfavorable view, 33 percent. In mid-March, 40 percent had a favorable view and 24 percent had an unfavorable view of Kerry, according to the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey. In 18 battleground states, people were almost evenly split on Kerry, with 36 percent viewing him unfavorably and 35 percent viewing him favorably — down from 41 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable in mid-March. Kerry lost popularity with conservatives, Republicans, Hispanics and independents. In the last month, people were significantly more likely to say Kerry changes his mind for political reasons, and to a lesser extent that he "says one thing, and does another." That has been a central theme of the Bush ad campaign. naes04.org unh.edu
