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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (13208)	5/4/2004 11:40:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

if economy looks vulnerable to higher rates later on then falling dollar will take bonds down hard with it then beware of the unwinding of bond leverage apparatus as long as we seem like economy CAN HANDLE higher borrowing costs, offsetting them with stronger profits, then falling dollar will NOT hit bonds and amplify the losses if economy CAN HANDLE higher rates, then Asian central banks will soften the bond blows, just like the past several months you know, overnight intervention with rescue packages that is why I believe only next year will bonds and dollar go down together in earnest only then will gold take off unsure when of course, but later this year or early next year there is no denying the USEcon is more robust now powered by financial sector and inflation, which is an amphetamine which will wear off / jim

To: gregor_us who wrote (13208)	5/5/2004 8:05:15 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<Fed was entering a tightening cycle.> This Fed tightening cycle is a joke. So is the Chinese, "beat 'em with a wet noodle" approach. And once the BOJ starts printing money again, in currency interventions, that will really be lethal. What they don't realize is that if they had been more aggressive, (say 2% by now), and another one percent by August, the reflation trades would have really corrected, and you'd have $32 oil today, instead of breathing down the neck of $40. And they might have put some life back into the USD. Instead this "measured" MoP perp only encourages another round of long trades, a USD collapse, the most vicious period ahead for the Train Wreck, and just for good measure, an inflation panic at the longer end of the bond "market". And this time it will be much more toxic than the so called reflation trade. It'll be the crack-up boom (flucht in die sachwerte)strain. That's the one with the potential for run away, parabolic, out of the bottle moves. All you have to do is look at a CRB chart, no resistance once it clears 283, and blue sky above. futures.tradingcharts.com