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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (49507)	5/5/2004 11:24:24 AM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 74559

>>it's almost a compliment to be roundly attacked by Ray.<< Almost. Ray is useful as the leftmost bookend on the range of US popular opinion. Plus, he actually contributes a few ideas, unlike the ex-Box. Hell, there are moments when I almost agree with Ray - I grew up in a socialist paradise myself, as you may recall. On the (BB&) recoveries front, it is crystal clear (to me, anyway) that the US economy continues to recover. The doomsters and Aztecs remain confused, however, as they are unable to grasp that the current economic trend is the net effect of several powerful forces. On the plus side we have a normal cyclical recovery with the added boost of unprecedented consumer spending by the boomers. On the minus side we have historically high productivity and the China factor, both of which are driving price deflation and job destruction. The net result is solid but not spectacular GDP growth and employment growth that is slower than in all previous recoveries. As capacity utilization increases, however, productivity will fall and employment growth will accelerate. We are heading right into a perfect storm of positive economic influences, that will give us the mother of all economic and stock market booms in the second half of this decade.