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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5001)	5/6/2004 11:38:08 AM
From: All Mtn Ski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

I think this semi selloff has really caught people by surprise, even on Wall Street. I'm looking at a research piece dated 4/12/04 from Mark Edelstone of Morgan Stanley, while he is right on the fundamentals, IMHO, his year-end SOX target of 600-650 seems a bit rosy now. Folks are trying to anticipate the peak earnings cycle, and then sell in advance of that, perhaps prematurely, but selling nevertheless. After some thinking about this past few weeks, I think we may also be seeing the affect of the carry trade as it gets unwound. "Cheap Money" and extra leverage have created at least part of the liquidity that has driven the market for the past 12 months. The first thing they sell are the high P/E growth stocks like tech and the semis. That is what we have seen, IMHO. It may the the result of a fund going under, as some have speculated. Perhaps, but the affects of such an unwind, if that is indeed what we are seeing, will take time to play out, but may be violent if we get a sharp upward movement in rates. Certainly the selling in the semis has been sharp and sustained for the past few weeks: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyiay[dc][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c100!c200... I never thought 2005 was going to be good for stocks anyway, so perhaps we've begun the "topping process" for the markets that could last through summer. Either way, I'm 100% Cash and doubt any of that will be moving back into the markets...Preservation of capital is key..... A-M-S