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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (49077)	5/5/2004 9:23:17 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 52237

Maybe Dell is a good name to play as long as one recognizes that it is now a boring, cyclical, commodity industry itself... oh the irony. I remember back in the days when a souped up 8088 or 80186 machine was hot stuff thinking that one day PCs would become like toasters. In the review mirror that day is now. Servers are much the same thing. I worked for Data General for 5 years of my 20 year career in IT and consulting, and got to hear the famous comment from Tom West - CTO, of 'Soul of a New Machine' fame "Commodity Economics Always Wins". We used to preach that against SUNW and sometimes won, sometimes not but the commodity nature of PCs and servers was not yet apparent to all back then and even though DG perhaps recognized it first, they executed extremely badly and in the end it was sold off to EMC. I should have taken a long term short on in SUNW. I knew they would end up like DG - for all intents and purposes they are now, except for the Java mystique and buying habits of regular customers, they would probably be at 2$ by now. Well maybe they will reinvent themselves but so far no sign of it. Hey nice chart in IM. Certainly looks like the cycle is a little longer now than it was... say 16 months now? And this one over?