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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (49551)	5/6/2004 1:04:30 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

This market doesn't have the conviction to rally, despite the good economic news, as if there is a dark cloud overhanging or a storm front approaching. Just doesn't feel the same as previous economic turn-arounds. It's like buy in anticipation of the news and sell when the news come out. And the bears are just waiting very patiently, like vultures, waiting for the bulls to break a leg and cannot run anymore. I read somewhere that those new jobs are of the lower paying jobs variety, but jobs nevertheless. Yet they are not equivalent to the recovery of the 1980's - not as vibrant and hardly any bon vivant feeling, just very subdued. The only ones feeling good are the immigrants and here in the west, it's the fast growing hispanic population.

To: Taikun who wrote (49551)	5/6/2004 1:10:59 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

what about "sell in may and go away"? Like ... hmmm ... selling some uncovered calls on SnP dec 04;)? dj

To: Taikun who wrote (49551)	5/6/2004 2:31:21 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Taikun, Chance for a summer rally? In January I had no idea at all of 5 months out, only fog... now I can't see 1 month out :o) I'm closing in on 70% cash... but that's likely it... Shouldn't a strong economy always imply a strengthening of currency ? On the jobs I think they need a few more 300K rabbits to make people really believe.. and people do want to really believe... I frankly have trouble believing the jobs but that's just me :O) Doesn't Jays implosion imply deflation also or are you talking a kinder gentler scenario... With high oil and maybe a few other things (yes deflationary) could we not be looking at stagflation.. My vote I think... Have you seen this thread ? Subject 54034 regards Kastel

To: Taikun who wrote (49551)	5/7/2004 5:07:00 PM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

I sold my May QQQ calls this morning for a mild profit, really due to a rise in the VXO, before it really tanked. Although I would like to be completely black, I still think: 1. Google, China Shipping IPO is a positive 2. Fed may not raise rates amid a market selloff now pricing 50, 75 or 100bp this year, which will kill consumer confidence, which will kill the housing market, which will kill the builders, and with that announcement, the market may tick up 3. 0.5% March income growth was the highest in many months and shows wage increases in addition to hiring which is what AG needs (an increase in real incomes to catch up with rising house prices, medical, tuition, energy costs) and he might not want to test his luck with rate hikes once the market shows its disgust 4. Selloff of Pound when BOE raised rates moved investors to a positive US investment stance vis-a-vis USD 5. Oil is not excessively high yet I still put a 1% probability on a small sideways leg, leg up, or summer rally Aside from that, like many others, I'm 65% cash, I'm keeping oil & gas, some int'l bonds (a la Buffett) some Gold, and a small number of int'l equities. Swiss Gov't Domestic Debt is Gold-Backed and Swiss consumer confidence just hit a 2yr high (coincidence?) Aside from Credit Suisse and UBS Bond funds there is an ETF swx.com Otherwise, the ominous indicators in the market point to the end of this secular bull with 99% probability. I'm adding to my boatload of QQQ Jan 06 Puts at $22 (the most volume is between $20-$22) because I don't want to wait for the next cycle. In the end, though, Malcolm will be right, cash is trash.