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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (5710)	5/6/2004 11:50:55 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

mish, Wow, wow, wow. There is some meat in that one. What we need is a special pair of glasses (like Joe Smith's) to really get the message out of this. Red flags on housing, the post WWII global economic paradigm (is it changing and will it be smooth or abrupt?), consumer debt, potential for "abrupt" corrections in key market balances (imbalaces actually!). I wish I didn't have to rush out to a meeting, because I think it would be fun to try to peel this onion. This statement is not clear to me. "At some point, however, international investors, private and official, faced with a concentration of dollar assets in their portfolios, will seek diversification, irrespective of the competitive returns on dollar assets. That shift, over time, would likely induce contractions in both the U.S. current account deficit and the corresponding current account surpluses of other nations." I understand the first part regarding diversification (hmmm, a hint that US assets may not be yielding historic returns in the future?), but I do not understand how this "induces" a contraction in the US account deficit. Can someone please explain this to me? What am I missing here? Thx TH

To: mishedlo who wrote (5710)	5/6/2004 11:57:35 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

should we go to his house and look for the pod -- or did he sit on some truth serum there?? LOL ... he is a master of psychology -- you gotta give the dude credit -- say the most bearish kind of crap when the dollar is rebounding -- gotta love it!!

To: mishedlo who wrote (5710)	5/6/2004 12:01:14 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

>>In tandem with increasing globalization, monetary policy, to most observers, has become increasingly effective in achieving the objective of price stability. But because we have not experienced a sufficient number of economic turning points to judge the causal linkages among increased globalization, improved monetary policy, significant disinflation, and greater economic stability, the structure of the transitional paradigm is necessarily sketchy. << translation: "I'm getting ready to leave. I've done one freakin' fabulous job -- if something bad happens after I leave -- it's because the next guy just couldn't hold a candle to me. D*mn, I'm good" <g>