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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zeta1961 who wrote (658)	5/6/2004 3:41:10 PM
From: tuck	Respond to of 897

Some links to Bay 43-9006 data: kidneycancertrials.org onyx-pharm.com "Pipeline" onyx-pharm.com From the company website: >>Our next product candidate is a small molecule inhibitor of a cyclin-dependent kinase. A product of our cell cycle collaboration with Warner-Lambert Company, now a subsidiary of Pfizer, Inc, this novel cell cycle inhibitor is being readied for clinical development this year. Pfizer expects to file an IND application with the U.S. FDA in 2004.<< And that's all, folks. Protocol for recently started (Fall '03) pivotal trial: clinicaltrials.gov If we can get a feel for the size of markets and timing of launch for Bay 43-9006, we get the valuation pretty quickly, it being pretty much a one trick pony now. Royalty is ~50%, but who pays for cost of goods? From the company website: >>The codevelopment collaboration between Onyx and Bayer results in Onyx funding 50 percent of the development costs for BAY 43-9006. In return, Onyx has a 50/50 profit share in the United States, where the companies can co-promote the product. Everywhere else in the world except Japan, Onyx's share is somewhat less than 50 percent since Bayer has exclusive marketing rights. In Japan, Bayer funds product development, and Onyx receives a royalty.<< As to timing, I'd say no earlier than 2007, with 2008 more likely -- and that's assuming things go well. Can anyone remember who their competitors are in their lead indications -- renal and liver? Where are they? As to markets . . . Kidney cancer: incidence 32,000, prevalence 250,000 urologychannel.com canques.seer.cancer.gov^^^1^^68^0&x=Race^11,1,2,3,12&y=Sex^1,2,3^Years%20since%20Diagnosis^10,11&dec=0 Liver cancer: incidence 16,600 annually; prevalence 28,000 canques.seer.cancer.gov^^^1^^31^0&x=Race^11,1,2,3,12&y=Sex^1,2,3^Years%20since%20Diagnosis^10,11&dec=0 wrongdiagnosis.com Oh yeah, for the valuation, we need to know how much it costs the patients. $10,000 bucks a year? Anybody got a feel for that? Cheers, Tuck