To: steve harris who wrote (188047 ) 5/7/2004 3:24:57 AM From: tejek Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1573824 Oops! ;~) *************************************************** Bush's ratings slip at crucial point of campaign By Susan Page, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — President Bush, who started the year with formidable poll ratings, is sliding into troubled territory. In January, Bush's job-approval rating was higher in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll than that of any recent president at that point in his first term; the public was optimistic about the future. Those two measures are the most accurate predictors of whether presidents win re-election. But in May, his approval rating has dipped below 50%, and the public has become more pessimistic. This spring, he's closer to presidents who lost their bids for second terms. Polls fluctuate, of course, and it's six months until the voting. But Bush is scoring some of the lowest ratings of his presidency at a key moment. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are paying close attention to the campaign. Bush aides have said voters' impressions of the president and challenger John Kerry would begin to set in May and June."The historical analysis of data has shown this window — April, May and June — is the window" when voters' views are formed, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake agrees. Rich Bond, who was Republican national chairman during the first President Bush's re-election campaign, acknowledges that "in the context of a moody economy and a dysfunctional Iraq, this is a tough time for President Bush." But he says the current president is in a significantly stronger position than his father, who lost his bid for a second term. A Gallup Poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday showed that if the election were held now, Kerry and Bush would be tied at 47% each; independent candidate Ralph Nader would receive 3%. That's a six-point swing since mid-April, when Bush led Kerry 50%-44%. The survey of 1,000 adults has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.What's hurting Bush: The public isn't convinced that the economy is getting better, and they're worried that Iraq is getting worse. By 62% to 36%, those polled said they were dissatisfied with the direction of the country, the most pessimistic reading since 1996. Republican analysts point out that President Clinton won re-election that year despite early pessimism. But Democrats say that shouldn't provide comfort for Bush because the public blamed the Republican Congress for a controversial government shutdown then. The elder Bush and President Carter faced more pessimistic publics in May of their fourth year in office; they both lost re-election. The public was optimistic at this point during President Reagan's first term; he won a second. Since Harry Truman, presidents who have won re-election have had job approval ratings of at least 52% at this point. Those who lost had ratings no better than 47% in May. Bush's rating is now 49%-48%. On three specific measures — his handling of the economy, foreign affairs and Iraq — Bush now scores the lowest approval ratings of his presidency. usatoday.com