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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (13471)	5/8/2004 9:23:00 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Well at least I've been following most of my own advice about not just being long PMs or the long, long, long everything trade. we'll I haven't sold any pm's to speak of since I started buying them 2+ years ago, and I've given back a hell of a lot of profits. but at least most were profits. fortunately, I am short a lot of stuff. unfortunately, I was early in my shorts, but they've been paying off in spades. fleck last night said he heard a lot of funds were shorting miners. assuming that's true, you can bet that they are shorting copper. I already am very fully loaded, especially since I bought more two weeks ago (including clg, which incredibly hasn't gone down since) but will likely buy some nto monday.

To: russwinter who wrote (13471)	5/8/2004 9:32:03 AM
From: Condor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

In 2000 Nickel was in short supply and the price rose to about todays level. I was shocked it didn't go higher. I did the same as you, ticking off the days but it never went into a deficit supply. Ni. had dropped to an eight day supply. Your conundrum about copper seems to replay that period. Message 13771758 Maybe the old saying, "the best thing to cure high prices is high prices" applies as a "law". C

To: russwinter who wrote (13471)	5/8/2004 10:14:54 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

what do you think about this comment from the latest Hoisington "interim" report? they seem to be saying inflation does not exist or cannot be very strong because growth in the M's is slow...i would have to dig back, but i don't think they were complaining about high future inflation when the M's were in double digits; i just don't know about using them as the sole definition of inflation. maybe as Noland argues, there are just too many other ways that money, credit, assets, and claims on assets have become "fungible" which are not captured in these aggregates. In the last 12 months, both M2 and M3 are ahead by about 4%. Such rates of growth are the slowest in the past seven years. Over a longer time frame, the growth in M2 equals the growth in nominal GDP (inflation plus real growth). Thus, if inflation is 2% late in the year, this would mean that real growth will drop to 2% also, down from better than 4% in the first quarter. hoisingtonmgt.com

To: russwinter who wrote (13471)	5/8/2004 10:59:15 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

PD (Phelps Dodge)now has three crows on the weekly chart. This is the same pattern on the HUI ending last week. Is it possible we are now heading into a recession/depression/K. Winter and these are the early signs? The alternate to inflation is everyone goes broke which is what is happening in gold now and theres no sign of it stopping. Don't we expect the ultimate resolution of this bubble to be recession/depression from history? M