Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonto who wrote (21323)	5/8/2004 3:29:26 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

In general I agree with you ("Never short into a strong market"), but there are always exceptions. I shorted Y2K heavy in '97 and '98. I just covered my ZITL/FRTL shorts for $0.003 per share because the company went bankrupt ... bummer ... I had to pay taxes<G>! A couple of weeks ago I shorted a few homies (thank you), but this is different (these are solid companies), so I will be taking profits. I am still looking for an economic slow down / recession in early/mid '05 (I've posted my reasoning on other threads). Only a few investors are seeing this yet, so we might have another rally in the interim. This reminds me of trying to pick when the tech bubble would burst. Starting in '98, I was watching my positions like a hawk. I started selling in the fall of '99 into early '00 (and I was still a few months early). That bust was typical "Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds" stuff, whereas the coming bust will be based on economic fundamentals. No one (including me) is able to pinpoint market turns ... and I could be completely wrong or just have poor timing. My main focus has been on housing (hence the homie short), and the impact of a housing slowdown on the overall economy. Because of the imbalances / heavy debt load I think the housing slowdown will ripple through the entire economy. I usually post my analysis on this thread: Subject 54696 Best to all.