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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonto who wrote (21343)	5/8/2004 3:43:02 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Even though I try to look out a year or more, I am always willing to change my mind as new info becomes available. It is really difficult to predict what will happen when housing slows. The Homies like TOL, CTX, HOV were obviously short term plays - that is the easy part. Will this slowdown ripple through the rest of the economy? How big of an impact will it have? I am still trying to quantify those dynamics. It usually takes about 6 months for unemployment to rise after New Home Sales start declining (I think we saw the peak in either March or April of this housing cycle). So related unemployment (Specialty contractors) should start rising after the election. All very interesting stuff.