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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: teevee who wrote (132382)	5/9/2004 7:26:12 PM
From: Paul van Wijk	Respond to of 281500

teevee, I believe you are right on target when you say the oil-supply prevents the US from withdrawal from Iraq. The problem is that the Bush-administration have to come up with a plausible story to explain the US-public but also the rest of the planet that the US invaded Iraq : - to help 'the people of Iraqi' achieve freedom or whatever, - to find WMD who are not there, - because Iraq/Saddam was behind 9/11, which Richard Clarke learned us to be total bllsht, and now that all these goals proved to be fake or unachievable he have to explain the US cannot leave Iraq because it would endanger the oil-supply, a (the!) strategic goal they never mentioned before the invasion. To make things worse, they have to come with such a story when Bush' credibility has both reached historic lows both inside and outside the US. Luckily we have the 'War on terror tour' were George W. will tell you in one or two simple one-liners how he will do it when you give him another 4 year. The same one-liners that brought the US the biggest guagmire since Vietnam. Good luck at the next elections. Regards, Paul

To: teevee who wrote (132382)	5/10/2004 5:58:47 PM
From: teevee	Respond to of 281500

The US cannot abandon Iraq. The reason why is because oil is becoming less and less fungible. For example, other nations such as Japan, China, France and Germany are doing development deals on giant oil fields with Iran, but the nature of the agreements are such that the oil production from those fields will be dedicated to the specific countries behind each deal. As oil production from new fields under these sorts of deals replaces oil from old, depleting fields, less and less oil and fewer sources of oil will be available for the US market. Over time, as a larger and larger percentage of new oil is effectively alienated from the market, the US will be squeezed more and more. If unrest in Saudi Arabia continues to grow, the US may have to increase its presence and provide military stability there too. The sort of new oil deals being done by other sovereign nations is defacto economic warfare being waged against the US. America has no choice except to ensure it has access to the oil resources it needs to maintain its economy and military. It appears that Saudi Arabia is open for business, just not with America....here is evidence the Sauds are also moving towards making oil less fungible and therefore less available to the US. When will Bush wake up and smell the coffee? China, Japan and the EU are engaged in economic warfare against the USA and now America's largest oil supplier is getting in bed with them!!! Saudi deal shrugs off safety fear Aramco's Rabigh plant will become one of the world's biggest Saudi Arabia and Japan's Sumitomo have agreed to create a giant petrochemical complex, in what Riyadh hopes is a sign that foreign investors are still keen. A recent upsurge of terrorism in the kingdom has worried foreign firms, and the US has told its citizens to leave. But Saudi Arabia said the Japanese deal could bring in investment of $4.3bn to a plant at Rabigh on the Red Sea cost. The site is not far from Yanbu, where five engineers were gunned down at a chemical plant a week ago. "While we would have to deal with various unforeseen challenges which may lie ahead of us, I am convinced that this joint project is bound to succeed," said Hiromasa Yonekura, president of Sumitomo Chemicals. Safe to invest? The scheme, due for completion in 2008, will turn the Rabigh refinery into one of the world's biggest petrochemical facilities. Abdallah Jumah, president and chief executive of state energy producer Saudi Aramco, said security for the industry was now tight. Facilities are protected by 5,000 guards as well as physical barriers, cameras and government security forces, Mr Jumah said. "We cannot take one incident and say the situation pertains across the whole of the kingdom," he said. Mr Yonekura said security was a top concern for Sumitomo, but said the company was more worried by regional tension in the Middle East than the Yanbu shooting. And now the bombing of an oil pipeline. And the Arab world furious with USA and Britian about the prisoner abuse makes you wonder if they will invest in this or anything else in The Middle East or increase the output of oil in June maybe that was all rhetoric. Day by day the landscape changes. The war in Iraq is now being described by many in the Armies higher eschelon as the same as the war in Vietnam unwinable.