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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (13589)	5/10/2004 2:41:13 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Mon May 10 2004 13:59 trotsky (the 'OPEC threat') ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved we have arrived at the 'word play' stage. OPEC can't really do much beyond threatening to increase production. the point being, it can't act on the threat, since by all accounts the official 'production ceiling' is ignored by everybody anyway - i suspect that they're ALREADY producing at, or near, full capacity. a capacity that is under constant depletion pressure. note also, the 'OPEC hawks' such as e.g. Venezuela and several others, are only hawkish BECAUSE they're already producing at capacity. thus if spare capacity can be brought to bear by Saudi Arabia ( which is the only OPEC member that possibly still has any ) it won't benefit those who can't raise output - they'd still be producing the same amount of crude, but would get less money for it. anyway, unless any reserves miracles have occurred while we weren't looking, OPEC is a paper tiger. Date: Mon May 10 2004 14:20 trotsky (cap) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved my point is only that mere words from OPEC really won't change a thing. the only thing that could imo take some pressure off the oil market would be a resumption of the synchronized global downturn that began in late '00. a distinct possibility actually.