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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (6097)	5/11/2004 6:55:43 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Elroy- Thanks, but I think one has to be careful w/analogies w/past periods (even though in general I agree with your comments about income/real estate price apprecation). However: (1) Retirees, which Florida gets a lot, are a different bird altogether. Many of these folks are not income dependent (maybe dividend dependent), but some just take x$ and go buy a new house elsewhere (Florida). This is a demand level not taken into consideration by the income/real estate appreciation argument. (2) Foreignors- Every day, there are dozens of families moving from South America (maybe hundreds, over a thousand- who knows?). Many/some of them arrive with boatload of cash, and pay cash for properties. Again, not reflected in income/price appreciation arguments. You've got Euros, Canadians who feel wealthier w/appreciating Euro/Canuckbuck buying 2nd appartments all along Florida coast (3) One needs to look at where prices WERE historically. There are certainly pockets of Florida that are getting priced out for many. For example, waterfront has gone up double-digits forever. However, in some/amy cases, it is still cheaper then California. Is there still room for appreciation (to California levels?). You tell me! Why not? (letting put aside that fact that interest rates will be ballooning shortly). (4) Florida is a diverse real estate market. You can buy a 4 bedroom, 2 bath house for 200k (maybe even less) only miles away from properties which sell same sq. footage for 10x that. Water/beach play a role here, and obviously not all properties comparable but I don't think comparisons are so easy either. Lots of variables (situation specific) to consider (5) Absolute comparisons w/Japan difficult due to cultural and demographic factors IMO (although obviously lessons can/should be learned)