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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (13638)	5/11/2004 11:51:30 AM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<Do you have a garden, water supply, land out of debt, fuel source and in a safe and small haven....hope so! So many laugh at the idea of preparing for the day when food will not be on the store shelfs nor petrol at the local gas station. Come it will, thanks to the blunder of the FED and local politics. What me worry - NOT> Yes and no. Food for 3 months. 100 gallons of water not much eh? But my brother is close he has 50 acres and 30-40 head of cattle and there is ample water in Oregon. In fact some say too much water. <g> But people should pay their debt down first and invest later.

To: westpacific who wrote (13638)	5/11/2004 12:01:56 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

why call names -- who is #2 gold timer?? I think shorting gold here is "late to that party." Might get it to drop to low 360's, but the potential upside is very large -- not good r/r.

To: westpacific who wrote (13638)	5/11/2004 12:22:24 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think too many people realize the extent that hot leveraged speculative money has come to dominate trading. It's especially true of commodities, indeed you have a situation where one precious metal, silver, has been literally short cornered (by so called commercials in this instance). These specs move in sink, like a herd, and that's why you see such volatility. So you always have to temper their activities in terms of estimating what your beta risk might be in any trade. If they get extremely lopsided, that could be trouble. Add the ingredient of even higher beta in the PM stocks many of us use, and this is what happens. I call it "live by the gun, die by the gun", something I'm willing to do it. I really got the impression last fall, when the sector was hot, that a lot of people forgot about "the die" factor. Just go read the posts on my PM thread, it was like some kind of Billy Graham religious spectacle. Clearly, and perhaps unfortunately this spec factor makes a straight long precious/base metal/energy buy and hold strategy problematic. However, right now (at least in metals) the specs have already done most of their damage. If the USD weakens (which is what I expect), they will be back like "The Terminator". I just don't think 25-50 bps rate increase kills the general commodity bull market.