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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (177929)	5/11/2004 4:06:49 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

That estimate comes from the Labor Department's "birth/death model." The birth/death model is the very thing that many felt was underestimating job creation during the last year. There is possibly some statistical catch-up taking place. The birth/death model is the least accurate when the economy is coming out of recession because more new businesses are being created at this point of the cycle. Last recession payroll figures underestimated job creation by well over a million jobs early in the recovery. These were "added" years later in a revision. Given its history, I think it quite unlikely that it is creating "make believe" jobs at this point in its cycle.