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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (15105)	5/11/2004 5:56:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95864

Here is the updated table for the Group based on today's action compared to last Friday's close. Today was a strong day and the Group, SOX and NASDAQ are up 3, 3, and 1 percent respectively. - 5/7/04 5/11/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG HELX 18.03 19.04 6 1.37 14 17 0.84 AMAT* 18.67 19.61 5 1.14 17 20 0.86 PLAB 15.49 16.20 5 1.11 15 18 0.83 BRKS 16.99 17.76 5 1.47 12 17 0.71 LRCX 22.09 23.04 4 1.64 14 20 0.70 KLIC 10.73 11.19 4 1.40 8 20 0.40 COHU 17.62 18.37 4 1.40 13 LTXX 11.20 11.67 4 1.02 11 20 0.57 SMTL 11.30 11.75 4 1.10 11 15 0.71 KLAC* 43.02 44.57 4 2.46 18 20 0.90 ASYT 8.67 8.97 3 0.32 28 18 1.60 VECO 24.00 24.83 3 1.49 17 18 0.95 MTSN 9.89 10.22 3 1.23 8 20 0.42 WFR 8.30 8.53 3 0.89 10 12 0.83 NVLS* 29.07 29.86 3 1.56 19 20 0.98 UTEK 17.06 17.45 2 1.04 17 31 0.55 ATMI 24.92 25.47 2 1.23 21 20 1.04 ASML 15.51 15.84 2 1.16 14 15 0.91 CYMI 33.03 33.70 2 2.59 13 26 0.51 TER* 21.18 21.45 1 1.78 12 15 0.80 DPMI 20.97 21.10 1 0.21 100 25 4.02 PHTN 30.80 30.89 0 1.74 18 25 0.71 CMOS 11.90 11.90 0 1.10 11 15 0.72 EGLS 4.06 4.06 0 0.12 34 22 1.54 FSII 6.04 5.90 -2 0.50 12 20 0.59 TOTALS 450.54 463.37 3 31.07 15 SOX-X 457.01 470.15 3 COMPQX1917.96 1931.35 1 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (15105)	5/11/2004 6:00:55 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 95864

And just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water... Go read the developing story on CNN. This international bullshit is the wildcard keeping money managers on the sidelines. In part at least out of a fiduciary responsibility for their clients (and I don't want to make to much of this) it's just a very dangerous time to have a lot of money in the stock market. And yet with rising rates it's dangerous to be in the bond market. Very frustrating... jess.

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (15105)	5/11/2004 10:21:25 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95864

For What It's Worth: It appears to me that the market has already priced between one and two full rate hikes into the stock prices. The reaction by investors over these potential rate hikes has perplexed me. The US economy is booming and at even higher rates would still function quite nicely. The final caveat, however, is that the economy almost by definition cannot continue to grow without the eventuality of demand for goods and services outstripping supply, and when that happens, prices will increase and that's inflationary pressure by definition. Unless of course productivity is strong which it has been. Finally, we may be strangely fortunate in one regard. Energy prices have been steadily climbing. They are a key component in the core measures of inflation, the PPI and CPI and yet inflation seems to remain very much in check. Energy and food prices are usually stripped out of the inflation numbers by economists to get a truer measure of inflation without the more unstable components distorting the measure. One last thought, I have worked as an energy economist for more years than I will admit too and I suspect the world is awash in oil from select OPEC countries producing above their quotas. I suspect the spike in oil prices is more political than fundamental and expect oil prices to fundamentally move lower in the months ahead. (Famous last words.) MGJ