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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 9:08:18 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. import prices up 0.2%, smallest gain in 6 months
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 1:45:57 PM

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Prices of goods and services imported into the United States rose 0.2 percent in April, the smallest gain in six months, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Prices of U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent. Imported petroleum prices fell 0.8 percent, while nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.3 percent. Agricultural export prices rose 2.6 percent. Year-over-year, import prices are up 4.6 percent and export prices are up 4.1 percent as the dollar weakened. In April, prices of non-fuel industrial materials increased 2.2 percent. Imported capital goods prices fell 0.5 percent, the first decline this year. Imports from Japan were unchanged in price, while imports from four other Asian countries rose a record 0.6 percent.



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 9:16:27 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Forex - Sterling firms as BoE hints at further rate hikes
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 12:55:55 PM

LONDON (AFX) - Sterling was firm after the Bank of England hinted at further interest rate rises to come and strong earnings data for March

The BoE warned that consumer price inflation would move above the 2.0 pct target in two years' time even after last week's 0.25 point hike to 4.25 pct, raising the prospect of further interest rate increases to come this year

And the monthly labour market report showed unemployment, as measured by the claimant count, falling to a near-30 year low, while pay packets rose at their fastest rate in nearly 30 years

"Sterling, which slumped yesterday in response to disappointing industrial production data, is leading the move against the dollar today, with the help of strong employment and earnings data and a fairly hawkish BoE inflation statement," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC USA

The combination helped push sterling back above 1.77 usd and the euro below 0.67 stg

Elsewhere, the dollar remained relatively firm against the euro and recovered earlier losses against the yen

The yen bounced back overnight, bolstered by gains on the Tokyo stock exchange and by the passage by the Japanese Diet of the pensions reform bill, which reduces the possibility of ministerial resignations over the continuing pensions scandal

On the US rate front, analysts said the interest rate markets continue to behave as if they are comfortable with the degree of Fed tightening now priced in, showing little reaction to comments yesterday from Fed Presidents Michael Moskow and Anthony Santomero in support of a measured move towards neutral policy settings. "This could all change of course if we get a firm CPI report on Friday," said UBS analyst Daniel Katzive

The trigger to the higher US rate expectations was last Friday's news that the US economy created 288,000 new jobs in April, way above the 170,000 pencilled in by the markets

That was the second consecutive month of solid jobs growth, cementing expectations that the US economic recovery is finally yielding employment improvements and solidifying predictions that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates from their current 46-year lows of 1.00 pct in June

The markets will also get a reminder this afternoon of the structural imbalances in the US economy, with a the trade deficit for March poised to hit a record high

fxstreet.com



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 9:19:54 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Weekly U.S. mortgage activity lower as rates rise
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 12:15:44 PM

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's composite index tracking U.S. mortgage loan applications fell 5.0 percent in the week ended May 7, to a seasonally adjusted reading of 742.2 from 780.9 in the prior week. A drop in refinancing activity accounted for the bulk of the pullback, with refinancings making up 39.8 percent of all applications in the latest week as opposed to 44.0 percent a week earlier. Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 34.8 percent of activity, up from the prior week's 32.1 percent and reaching their highest shares of activity in nearly 10 years. The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.32 percent from 6.10 percent on a week-to-week basis, while 15-year fixed-rate mortgages reached 5.72 percent from 5.44 percent. One-year ARM's also rose, climbing to 3.74 percent from 3.69 percent.



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 9:23:42 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
BoE hikes CPI inflation forecast, paving the way for more rate rises -UPDATE
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 10:59:53 AM

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England has hiked its forecast for inflation, and paved the way for yet more interest rate rises by saying that the Consumer Price Index measure will shoot above the 2.0 pct target set by the government towards the end of 2006

The Bank's central projection sees CPI rising steadily to breach the 2.0 pct mark in the first half of 2005 to levels close to 2.5 pct by end 2006

In the near term, the CPI is also expected to pick up as falls in oil prices last year drop out of the equation and as higher utility prices come into play

The upwardly revised projection reflects "stronger near-term pressures on capacity" the Bank said

The forecasts justify the Bank's latest quarter point rate hike last week, which took the benchmark repo rate to 4.25 pct, and sets the stage for the rate setting Monetary Policy Committee to deliver more rate increases. The 25 basis point rate hike, the Bank said, was "necessary" to keep inflation on track to meet the 2.0 pct CPI target

The Bank has now raised interest rates three times in the space of six months and had advance notice of the forecast at its rate setting meeting last week, despite the public release today. At last count, inflationary pressures were decidedly benign, rising by only 1.1 pct in March. The Bank also included a set of projections which assume that interest rates rise in line with market expectations. This forecast shows a somewhat softer outlook for inflation. The Bank also raised its expectations for overall GDP growth, saying that in the short term it sees growth "well above trend" driven by "continued buoyancy" in household and government spending alongside a "revival" in business sentiment. The trend rate refers to GDP growth of 2.5 pct

The Bank's central projection sees GDP growth peaking at just under 4 pct in the middle of 2004 before falling back to around 2.5 pct at the end of 2006

Despite the hawkish tone of the projections, the Bank said "considerable risks remain" - mainly given the overheated state of the housing market

"The most significant uncertainty relates to the prospects for house prices and the impact of house prices on household spending," it said

It is feared that runaway house prices will eventually lead to a crash which in turn depresses consumer activity

The Bank expects house price gains to "slow sharply over the next 2 years" though they may "continue to rise strongly" in the short term

Consumer spending is also expected to grow strongly in the near term, but to ease later on as house price gains slow

Still, the MPC believes the risk to growth and inflation are broadly balanced.

fxstreet.com



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 10:25:21 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Oil prices off 13-year highs after OPEC tries to repair frayed nerves -
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 2:53:34 PM

LONDON (AFX) - Oil futures were off earlier 13-year highs after OPEC indicated it may be on the point of sanctioning an increase in its self-imposed output quotas in an effort to calm a market unnerved by rocketing global demand for oil and disruptions to supplies from the key Middle East region

At 13.45 GMT, Brent futures for June delivery were 7 cents higher at 37.43, off an earlier high of 37.55

Brent prices had taken their lead from US contracts

NYMEX's June-dated light sweet crude contract last traded one cent up on Tuesday's New York close, having roared up to 40.38 usd overnight, the highest level reached since the run up to the 1991 Gulf War

The correction in prices came after OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro, who is also Indonesia's oil minister, said he and fellow OPEC ministers would take advantage of their presence at an International Energy Forum (IEF) meeting in Amsterdam "to review the world oil market situation." The comments came after leading global producer Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member, called Tuesday for an increase in the cartel's production ceiling

Kuwait's energy minister Sheikh Ahmed Fahd al-Sabah meanwhile said his country would support any output hike by OPEC to assure a nervous market that OPEC is prepared to act to quell skyrocketing prices and to restore confidence

However, analysts were sceptical OPEC will in reality be willing, or able, to do much to douse the rally

Investec analyst Bruce Evers said tight US gasoline supplies were behind high oil prices, rather than a shortage of crude. "It's a political decision, Saudi Arabia is under pressure from the US," he said, adding that the end result may amount to "very little". Others agreed. "There is an outside risk that prices could even head towards 50 usd if the wrong sort of headlines came out of Saudi Arabia or Iraq," Barclay's Capital analyst Kevin Norrish said. In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency said booming global economic growth, notably in China, is spurring global demand to its highest level in 16 years

The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2004 by 330,000 barrels per day to 80.6 mln barrels and warned there is a need to increase refining output to meet demand

Barclays analysts said even that estimate may be too conservative

"The organisation is still presenting too benign a view," they said in a note

The IEA report -- said to be a key factor in determining OPEC production policy -- also called on suppliers to pump more crude. Market watchers said today's US government inventory data will be of critical importance. Expectations are for a 1.7 mln barrel build in crude stocks and a further 2.1 mln barrel increase in gasoline. Meanwhile, independent engineers said it would take at least a week to restore Iraqi oil exports following Saturday's sabotage attacks on a pipeline leading from the Basra oil terminal which was still on fire yesterday. Iraq's oil minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloum had confidently predicted on Tuesday exports would be restored within 24 hours. Exports from the war-torn country have fallen 1.1 mln barrels per day as a result of the attacks

Barclays analysts noted al-Uloum had admitted that with the Iraqi pipeline network extending all over the country it would be almost impossible to completely eliminate the possibility of further attacks

fxstreet.com



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 10:32:19 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
The Cassandras and the Optimists

gold-eagle.com



To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6170)5/12/2004 10:54:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
OUTLOOK OECD, WTO ministers to try to give new impetus to world trade talks
Wednesday, May 12, 2004 3:11:53 PM

PARIS (AFX) - OECD governments will try to help breathe new life into the Doha round of WTO world trade talks at their annual ministerial meeting tomorrow and Friday here

Trade ministers from the 30 OECD countries and a number of major non-member countries, including China, India and Brazil, will discuss the WTO talks at a session within the OECD meeting on Friday morning

Many of the same ministers will then reconvene for a WTO mini-ministerial meeting on Friday afternoon. Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez, who is chairing both the OECD meeting and the WTO gathering, said new proposals from the US and EU could give fresh impetus to the stalled trade talks

"At the end of this meeting we may have the basis for a reinitiation of the Doha round," Derbez told journalists ahead of the OECD ministerial meeting

The EU this week offered to eliminate its agriculture export subsidies if other WTO members are willing to do the same, and the US in turn promised to remove export credits that act as export subsidies

EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy and US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick will attend both the OECD and WTO meetings

Derbez said the EU and US moves could set the WTO talks back on track after the disappointing failure of the Cancun WTO ministerial meeting last September

Trade ministers meeting this week will need to look at the latest proposals made by the EU and US and link these to the final document from the Cancun WTO meeting, which needs to be regarded as the starting point for the new discussions, he said

The WTO has set an end-July deadline to relaunch the talks with the hope of meeting a Jan 2005 deadline to conclude the Doha round

Derbez said that if trade ministers meeting this week make progress, this could clear the way for a resumption of talks among all 147 WTO countries in Geneva

OECD secretary general Donald Johnston said in a letter to ministers attending the OECD meeting that international trade must continue to be a source of prosperity for all nations, and developing countries' concerns need to be addressed if momentum is to be injected into the Doha round

Derbez said developing countries now have to decide whether to accept the EU and US proposals as a solution to their complaints over a lack of access to rich countries' markets for their agricultural products

The Friday afternoon gathering could be the last chance to set the free trade effort back on track by the end-July deadline

"There will be no other opportunity for ministers to meet and we don't have much time," said Eduardo Perez-Motta, Mexico's ambassador to the WTO

Carlo Trojan, the EU's ambassador tot the WTO, said the 28 ministers meeting on Friday afternoon will not have to examine detailed issues in their four hour encounter

"What we are waiting for is a strong signal to conclude discussions on the modalities of the negotiations before the end of July," he said

The EU's offer on agriculture export subsidies was cautiously welcomed by Mexico, one of the countries at the heart of the G20 group of developing countries which want to see agricultural subsidies dropped

"It is a timely offer, just before the Paris meeting. It is a good political signal, but it is not a real offer, it is conditional," said Perez-Motta

Finance and economy ministers will also be attending the OECD gathering and will hold a discussion on the global economy tomorrow

In its semiannual economic outlook this week the OECD said the world economy is experiencing a strong and sustainable recovery, but that continental Europe is lagging well behind other regions

OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said the European Central Bank should cut interest rates to underpin the euro zone recovery and described concerns over rising oil prices as an overreaction. International trade unions organisations called for governments and central banks to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in Europe and Japan, in order to achieve higher and more balanced global growth

"This requires first and foremost that the euro zone finally becomes an accelerated engine of growth, through a significant easing of monetary policy, alongside, in the short term, flexible implementation of the existing stability pact," the OECD trade union advisory committee (TUAC) said in a statement ahead of the OECD meeting and the June 8-10 G8 summit

Johnston said economic reforms in Germany, France and Italy should help these economies to accelerate from their anaemic current growth rates, and he played down concerns about the possibility of overheating in the US or China

But the US' twin budget and current account deficits are unsustainable in the long term, he told journalists

Derbez said the world economy is set to grow in 2004 but there are some concerns about the outlook for 2005 in some countries. The prospect of rises in US interest rates could be source of concern for some economies, he said

Ministers will also discuss the impact of population ageing on economic growth and fiscal policy

"Without changes in existing policies, population ageing will cause a marked slowdown in economic growth in most OECD countries and a marked deterioration of public finances. The challenge is to design and implement labour market and social policies that will increase employment and preserve the long-run sustainability both of public finances and, in particular, pensions," said Johnston

Cotis said a key contribution to closing the financing gap in public pension systems could be made by encouraging people to work longer, particularly by abandoning early retirement schemes and by removing incentives to choose early retirement over continued employment in tax and pension systems

OECD studies have shown that eliminating such distortions would significantly increase the employment rates of 55-64 year olds in euro zone countries in particular, he said

Increased labour force participation by women could also be encouraged by tax measures and subsidies for childcare, he said

A parallel meeting of OECD health ministers is to examine the financial sustainability of health systems

An OECD study shows that there is considerable room to improve the efficiency of health systems as a contribution to meeting the challenge of rising health costs, said Johnston

Finance and economy ministers will also endorse new OECD guidelines on corporate governance worked out in reaction to a series of corporate scandals, such as those at Enron Corp, Parmalat SpA and most recently Royal Dutch/Shell group

"Financial scandals involving important companies have demonstrated the need to strengthen systems of corporate governance,"said Johnston

The new corporate governance principles set more demanding standards on the protection of shareholders' interests than the 1999 guidelines that they replace

They are intended to make boards of directors and institutional investors more accountable and ensure that there are solid checks and balances in the corporate governance framework

The principles say shareholders should be able to remove board members and have full information on their pay, and that anti-takeover devices such as "poison pill" measures should not be used to protect management and the board from accountability

The OECD hopes that ministers will give it authority to monitor the implementation of the new guidelines in member countries

fxstreet.com