Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (6172)	5/12/2004 1:09:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Wages & Stuff bls.gov up .14 per hour from 15.45 to 15.59 since Dec 2003 .14 in 16 months .14/15.45 =.9% .9*12/16=.68% annualized amazing ======================================================================== bls.gov average weekly hours worked increased from 33.6 to 33.7 =========================================================== The complete BS ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/empsit.txt =============================================================== The big lie in this months figures has already been discussed bls.gov

To: NOW who wrote (6172)	5/12/2004 1:24:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

This is the KEY question we need to knock heads on! Russ? Mish? Others? Heinz?? Yes that is the key question but my answer and Heinz's is likely to be the same and different from Russ's I suppose there is a compromise of sorts. That compromise is that inflation is huge here and now, but that Russ under-estimates how little of a rate hike it will take to throw us into a severe recession with rapidly falling housing and housing related employment. Another possibility is that regardless of the deflationary spiral we are in, we have so much frigging balance of trade problems that no one wants our debt at any price. I suppose that is possible. In that scenario I would assume gold would absolutely skyrocket. IMO the most likely thing is that the FED does hike 1/4 or 1/2 in August and the economy is going to hell by the election. Next year, that 1/2 will be taken back. God knows where oil will be. Russ's answer will be different but if the stock market and housing market and jobs all go bust quickly, I bet he would discard his inflation ideas. Bear in mind, the market is for Bush IMO. If it perceives that Kerry is going to win, a huge selloff can come far earlier than anyone thinks. If that is accompanied by a slowdown in housing the lights are out. Worse yet is the scenario where all that happens and China is still going gangbusters. Enormous deflation in the US in all assets but rising commodity prices. There is literally no answer to that problem for the FED at all. $1,000 gold and $80 oil with stocks and housing going bust? ugh Mish