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To: energyplay who wrote (49840)	5/12/2004 6:42:12 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello EP, <<Good news is inflation is working its way through the system...higher tax receipts>> Let's get this straight, inflation is bad news, very bad news, and especially bad news when the assets within that said economy will deflate regardless of the rate of increase in cost of living in that same economy. What is perhaps good news is that my Thailand real estate holdings may be boosted in value, as the empire's troops get to station there, to pacify what cannot be pacified, and the officers get to spend the tax receipts on R&R somewhere close by, say on Koh Samui. Future U.S. Base in Thailand: A Useful Pressure Point May 11, 2004 stratfor.biz Summary Bangkok is threatening to allow the United States to build a military base in or near Thailand's restive southern provinces. This could be enough to draw the players behind the recent string of violence to the negotiating table. Analysis The prospect of U.S. military intervention in southern Thailand is a useful tool with which Bangkok can pressure militant groups, corrupt officials connected to criminal gangs and neighboring Malaysia. Fear of a U.S. presence could already be paying dividends: Leaders of insurgent groups in the majority Muslim southern provinces have already reached out for talks with Bangkok. The United States offered to establish a military base in Thailand as part of its war against terrorism, said Metha Matkhao, a coordinator for a Thai human rights organization, Thailand's the Nation reported May 4. The report prompted a curt response from Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar two days later. Thailand is providing invaluable assistance in U.S. operations against militant Islamists, including arresting top Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) operative Ridhwan Isam al-Deen al-Hanbali and dispatching military units to Iraq. The United States has rewarded Thailand by designating it a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) and beginning negotiations over a free trade agreement with the country. Stratfor has said that Thailand would be a likely future site for U.S. bases or staging areas in Southeast Asia. U.S. defense officials reportedly investigated the Sattahip naval base and U-Tapao air base for prepositioning military equipment in 2003. U.S. military and intelligence personnel probably are already operating in southern Thailand to a limited extent. The area is a critical nexus of militant Islam and transnational criminal gangs that enable groups like al Qaeda and JI to move material and human resources through the region. JI members reportedly met in southern Thailand in January 2002 to plan operations against soft targets in Southeast Asia -- possibly including the October 2002 Bali night club bombing and August 2003 Jakarta Marriott attack. If the United States were to beef up operations in the country, it most likely would implement a plan similar to U.S. military activities in the southern Philippines, where the United States is assisting native efforts to hunt down Abu Sayyaf. At the height of operations, some 1,000 U.S. soldiers were deployed, including 160 Special Forces troops who trained, advised and assisted approximately 4,000 troops from Armed Forces of the Philippines during the Balikatan 02-1 exercises. Allegations by the director of a human rights organization in Thailand certainly do not confirm anything. But the introduction of U.S. forces to the country corresponds with the current trend in U.S.-Thai relations and U.S. operations in the region in general. True or not, the public charge that the U.S. military will extend its footprint to the southern provinces could be useful for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Islamist groups, criminal gangs and corrupt security officials operating in the area would not like to see U.S. troops enter the fray. Thaksin argues, and Startfor agrees, that the recent spate of violence is not likely the work of al Qaeda-linked groups as much as it is regional civilian and security officials aiding local criminals smuggling drugs and guns across the Thai-Malaysian border. Officials and their criminal cohorts likely have powerful political patrons in Bangkok, making the problem in the southern provinces difficult to solve with national forces alone. U.S. Special Forces, who presumably are unconcerned with local politics or whether officials profit from illicit trade, would be an unbiased and powerful third party that could prove extremely disruptive. Kuala Lumpur also does not want American forces operating so close to its northern border. The U.S. military is already on its eastern flank conducting operations in the Philippines, and Washington is seeking to establish a regional Maritime Security Initiative to patrol the waters of the Straits of Malacca. From Malaysia's point of view, the United States is trying to encircle Malaysia and is preparing to target militants within its borders and on its national waters. Islamists and criminal gangs in Malaysia support fellow organizations across the border in Thailand. By inferring that the region's problems are getting so out of hand that it needs to rely on U.S. assistance, Bangkok can squeeze Kuala Lumpur to expend more energy cracking down on the groups. The threat of a U.S. base could already be paying off. Kuala Lumpur has made clear it would not welcome U.S. forces and that it might even take measures to help resolve the crisis in southern Thailand to prevent or diminish U.S. operations there. Militant groups also are already whistling another tune. Southern regional army Cmdr. Pisarn Wattana-wongkiri said leaders from militant groups are opening dialogue with the Thai government, Xinhua reports, quoting a report in the Bangkok Post. Pisarn said Masae Useng, leader of the Barisan Revolusi Nationale umbrella group could be the first of many separatist networks to negotiate with the government. Masae and leaders of other groups are charged with treason in connection to the recent string of violence. Back-channel discussions between Masae, other militant leaders and the government reportedly have been ongoing for more than a month. The thought of U.S. forces entering the region could help convince militant groups and their patrons that if the violence does not end soon, events might take on a life of their own and spiral dangerously out of control. If U.S. troops are introduced to the region, they are likely to remain for some time, which could be enough to draw the important players in the local conflict into negotiations. Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.