Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (43821)	5/12/2004 3:11:32 PM
From: Brian Sullivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793712

This sound like an endorsement to me... Or at least a lot of wishful thinking. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election. ... Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion: First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race...(His polls have consistently been the most favorable to Kerry and this one hardly predicts Kerry as the winner) Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. (This fact does not seem to help Kerry either) Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative. (It's news to me that the majority of the undecided voters vote against a Presidential incumbent. Is he just making this stuff up?) Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. ... (And if the economy is much stronger does that help or hurt John Kerry in the next six months?) The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control... (He says that the President is at the mercy of things that he cannot control as compared to John Kerry? Hmm, we will we see. My hunch is that a sitting President is in much more control of events (photo ops, etc...) than a challenger, remember Reagan in 1984?) While the economy is improving, ... and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. (I guess he missed the strong job growth numbers from the past two months) The same holds true for Iraq. ... It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation. (And John Kerry has a clearly articulated plan that would address this issue? Finally, ... Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns... (Let's pile on the love shall we) All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. (Ah the definition of nuanaced is actually thoughtful) It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due." (Can you feel the love) Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side). (Come one everyone give my man John Kerry another look, his numbers are better than the President’s) We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.(Honestly I know that this election is really close to call but I really, really, really want John Kerry to win) zogby.com