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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lane3 who wrote (43945)5/12/2004 4:03:25 PM
From: Brian Sullivan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793717
 
In any event, it was framed as a prediction, not as an endorsement. A happy prediction isn't an endorsement. If it were an endorsement he would have elaborated on why Kerry would make the better president, not on why he was well positioned to win the election.

Yes, but there is something unseemly about a supposedly independent pollster cheering on one of the two contestants.

To me a pollster must try to appear non-partisan otherwise he destroys his reputation. In any case there is still plenty of time for informed predictions. Having John Zogby come out with a carefully reasoned prediction about the election in the last week of October would be fine. Coming out six months before the election with that syrupy write up that could be titled "Why John Kerry Will Win", (without giving a single convincing argument on why this is so) just turns him into another partisan hack.

I still think that Bush will win the election this year. If things continue to go badly for Bush then we could very well end up with a split in the popular vote and the electorial college agian. But this time could be a big spilt; with Kerry running up huge landslides in the Blue states and Bush winning all of the Red states by narrow margins. Oh won't that be a fun scenario for the pundits.