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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6294)	5/13/2004 11:43:33 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 116555

more from heinz Date: Thu May 13 2004 11:05 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved bullish money flows today. PoG may have some downside left, but imo the pm stocks are probably done with their correction, at least price-wise ( not necessarily time-wise ) Date: Thu May 13 2004 10:44 trotsky (JW, 7:49) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it is true that the gold market is small, but the treasury owns over 8,000 tons of gold, not 800. you also contradict yourself by first stating that the gold maket is unimportant, and then insisting that it IS important that gold trade at some arbitrary 'price'. the Fed meanwhile is the major source of economic instability, which isn't surprising, since a central economic planning agency CANNOT POSSIBLY KNOW what the 'correct' interest rate should be. if it were otherwise, the Soviet Union would still be around, and a utopia. the Fed's interventionism creates booms and busts, hardly what one would call 'stability'. if money were left to the free market, economic and personal liberty would be practically assured, and one can only speculate how much higher living standards would be had we not been saddled with the monetary bureaucracy. it is inherently inimical to prosperity, as are all socialist-style institutions. Date: Thu May 13 2004 10:36 trotsky (strat, 7:36) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "...debt creates dollar demand" an apparently now wide-spread fallacy. obviously , since the debt isn't being paid back, but rather, more of it is created by the second, this can't be true. also, what the purveyors of this theory overlook is WHO the creditors are. foreign creditor cashing in their chips would CRASH the dollar, not create 'demand' for it. and regardless of whether the huge domestic private sector debt in the US is inflated away ( not gonna happen, imo ) or is extinguished in a deflationary collapse of cascading cross defaults ( much more likely ) , PAYMENT, and 'demand for dollars' isn't involved in either option. ESPECIALLY not demand RELATIVE to foreign currencies. as an aside, the major non-dollar currencies without exception also are the basis of huge debt mountains. Date: Thu May 13 2004 10:29 trotsky (Aurum, 7:35) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved one really wonders why anyone would want to fake such images in light of Congress now being in possession of about 1,700 real ones, that show precisely this type of activity, and worse, according to the remarks of those that have seen them. it is after all unlikely that the pictures will stay under wraps. there really is no need to engage in propaganda on the issue - what has become known up to this point seems damning enough. even more damning is the reaction of officialdom and so-called 'conservative' media personalities on the breaking scandal. seems they think the torturing is really all-right, just a 'prank' according to Limbaugh. what obviously exercised the secretary of defense the most at his hearing was NOT that people had been tortured by the representatives of 'liberty and democracy', but the fact that somehow, this extraordinary material got leaked. it was THIS point which produced his most intense emotional response. and so it goes, as Vonnegut would say.

To: mishedlo who wrote (6294)	5/16/2004 10:30:44 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

the major point of debate w.r.t. the dollar these days is 'how high will it go'. since nobody invests on fundamentals anymore, and markets are controlled by trend-following hedge funds and other leveraged trend followers, it makes sense. while the dollar is in an uptrend, they will follow it until the trend is broken. just as they followed the downtrend till it broke (crashed). naturally, this results in a situation where everybody is on the wrong side of the boat at the same time, thereby capsizing the boat. most recently we saw that with the spike in USD along with collapse of all anti-USD plays. and earlier, with the blowoff top of speculative tech names in 2000 (end of trend), followed by their washout to the point where many smaller names traded for less than cash on hand (start of bear trend), followed by a Son of Bubble (countertrend) which may be now peaking. so USD is just like any other trending market played by leveraged conformists who, collectively, lose money.