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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Grandk who wrote (13789)5/13/2004 12:11:59 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
>>there is no place for i-rates to go but up <<

I doubt it. There is no wage inflation. Capacity util is very low and higher commodity prices, including oil -- is already slowing things to the extent that AG may not have to raise ...

If the dollar dumps -- the Japanese will be back, buy bonds hand over fist trying to keep their (pipe) dream alive ...

Bearish sentiment on bonds is ubiquitous -- it is everywhere you look. Stock bears and bulls all agree -- commodity bulls and bears agree -- rates are going up.

Too much consensus.

Note we have a small divergence -- almost not worth mentioning -- on the gold shares versus the metal -- is the market telling us that the Fed has been lying to us again -- that they really are deathly afraid of deflation and about to flood the market with liquidity at the first sign of weakness??



To: Grandk who wrote (13789)5/13/2004 12:21:16 PM
From: AK2004  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
re: What is alarming is the amount of people locked in at low IR on ARMs.

eh? what would give you that idea. Even if true you also have to look at their total finances before making any conclusions.

Standard ALM.....