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Technology Stocks : IDT *(idtc) following this new issue?* -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 613 who wrote (30321)	5/13/2004 4:20:12 PM
From: carreraspyder	Respond to of 30916

imo, the critical thing -- because it is essential to see a second stage to cable telephony deployment next year, -- is signing up msos to get subscribers. what happens after ntop gets the eligible msos? subscribers!, and ntop will then talk about SIP voip deployment (more global) but easier to pull off because in many of the areas where it could be deployed there is no competing infrastructure, and wi-fi. how aggressive will wi-fi be next year? cable telephony with msos is the target business. but you aren't going to see a subscriber base this year. imo, you are going to see even more cable telephony press next year. in december, ntop got NO recognition. Now, it doesn't outplay vonage (vonage has press friends/relationships, and spends beaucoup on PR). BUT, writers who have a sense for ongoing business developments/players, started to pick up ntop. You can tell when a writer is tied to vonage or accesses only vonage press; that's all you see. ntop needs to pick up ONE of the large size tier 2 cable msos this year, and that will change the ongoing perception. and if it doesn't, it will still change the business. a no-lose. but they have to do that. there may be 2 possibilities (charter, or mediacom). adelphia, again, can't be called. if adelphia is not bought out because the offer(s) end up not being high enough ($20 billion), the co. could go it alone. but i am not sure management isn't a caretaker management. i think charter wants in, but don't know how charter gets past its own high debt. so from the outside, the odds are adelphia goes on as it is or there is a break-up. [i am interested in adelphia because there are so many homes passed, and NTOP did just respond to an RFP. i am also interested because ntop doing cable telephony for adelphia would make everyone pay attention.] ..in that very long voip summit thing i posted yesterday, Citron (vonage) had a comment that despite all the vonage razzle dazzle, he didn't see vonage signing up a million customers by the end of next year. at&t is touting that it could. at&t is providing a product that is comparable to vonage's product -- with at&t marketing and PR behind it. there are areas where that product falls short. uptake is crucial, for every single player. if people think everyone is moving to voIP because that is what they hear about, they will think about it for themselves. that is a hill to climb. most companies will only make it so far up the hill. consumers will really get interested if they think everyone is doing it. this concept too is one of the outliers. have to see. but if it happens, it will flop the thing over to a new stage.