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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rascal who wrote (44193)	5/13/2004 6:57:49 PM
From: frankw1900	Respond to of 793677

Nuance, Rascal! Nuance! The story is this: In most of Iraq life is becoming "normal" as you and I think of it. "Macro" stuff. Business is getting done, kids going to school, young folk going to university, tribal leaders heading in a zig zag course for democracy, majority of clerics democratically (modern in attitude) minded, where there are local elections folk mostly vote for technocrats not Baathists or theocrats. Huge politcal ferment, of course, because there has never been any real modern politics to do there before. It was feudal politics which is politics of tyranny. Iraqis say their single most important concern is security and they're right. They're suffering from terrorism from Baathist dregs, Syrian, Iranian and Saudi sponsored Khomeneist and Wahbbist terrorists, and the usual sorts of criminal types who attach themselves to such activities. But, try as these people do to change the direction, the country is inexorably moving to what you and I would call "normality." Unless it shoots itself in the foot in the next six months to a year, the US has won in Iraq. Iraqis will have their democracy. They have a lot of problems to deal with - most of them arising from centuries of horrible corruption and a few from the hate and fear of some neighboring rulers. The tight sphinctered folk in Washington and elsewhere almost lost it a while back when they realized they couldn't control the future and it wasn't clear just what might come out of Iraqis voting in free elections. But now it looks like they may go with the flow, and kill or otherwise disable the bad guys, which is good. The Iraqis'll like that. What does Washington get out of it, if it comes off more or less OK? It gets an incredibly fractious middle east ally with one virtue for certain: it will actively attack islamofascists and secular fascists. It will have a salutary destabilizing effect on Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia and will encourage the minor Gulf states to continue in a modern direction. And it will be a total reproach to the Egyptians. I don't have much time right now, if you want, I'll write you something longer in a few days. Did you read this? Message 20115598