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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Doyle who wrote (13873)	5/14/2004 1:26:38 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Reply from Heinz: buying the bond now, absolutely. with the treasury auctions out of the way, UP is the path of least resistance imo, especially with everybody bearish as hell. regarding the real estate bubble, the first CRACKS are in evidence with the recent slide in homebuilder and mortgage finance shares. but note that even if this bubble has peaked (i think it has, but can't be certain of that) it will take a while for this becoming a topic at cocktail parties (which is the major 'recognition' parameter). mainly because transactions in RE are not instantaneous such as stock market tansactions. also, RE busts tend to begin in one or two areas, and the slowly spread from there. when properties have been sitting with for sale signs for 6 months or longer, and are still not sold in spite of askling prices dropping and dropping, then the critical moment will have arrived. note btw. that i believe a housing bust will come CONCURRENT with falling interest rates, not rising ones as is generally assumed.