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To: Skywatcher who wrote (852)5/14/2004 10:44:45 AM
From: Bucky Katt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1338
 
The Fed will lift short-term interest rates to 2.5% over the next 12 months and to 3.5% by the end of 2005, according to the WSJ.com forecasting survey.

Among other findings:

• The economists believe the stock market would put in a much stronger performance for the year if President Bush is re-elected than if his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, wins the White House. On average, they believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is down several percentage points so far this year, would finish 2004 with an 8% increase if Mr. Bush wins but would rise just 3.5% if Mr. Kerry is elected. Some economists believe Mr. Kerry could seek the reversal of dividend and capital-gains tax cuts, in addition to higher marginal tax rates for higher-income households, which tend to own a lot of stock.

• Economists named Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist and one of Ronald Reagan's economic advisers, as their top pick to replace Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman, if Mr. Bush is re-elected. If Mr. Kerry wins, they believe the job would go to Robert Rubin, who was Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton. Mr. Greenspan's term at the Fed will expire in 2006 and he is ineligible for another.

online.wsj.com