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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (15158)	5/14/2004 11:21:24 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95821

Call me stupid but i think the market will rally this afternoon and close up.

To: Kirk © who wrote (15158)	5/15/2004 12:25:26 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 95821

There is an old adage that to really make money in the stock market one has to buy when everyone else is scared to death. I think that time is now. I agree completely with the sentiments on several recent posts. They are: (1) The market is doubly scared right now about the price of oil and the interest rate environment. (2) In a related vein, the market is extremely nervous about the international situation, which is of course related to the first point but also tied to the possibility of a major terrorist attack. Several things then: (a) With regard to point (1), these two phenomena are working in the same direction as far as slowing down the economy. With oil this expensive, the Fed's job as far as raising rates to slow the economy becomes much easier and requires considerably less rate-raising to do the job. If the market is factoring in 300 bp or more in rate rises, it's clearly overreacting, and I believe will become aware of that. (b) Let's not forget (again) that we have considerable resources in the field looking for Bin Laden, and with his capture or any easing of tensions in Iraq, the market will react favorably. (c) With any move that the price of oil is coming back down (whether Bush opens the reserve taps or not), related to the tone with which I started this message, this market segment (semis) becomes (in my humble opinion) a screaming buy. I will put another $5K to work in two weeks, and only wish I had it to invest now. jess.