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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (52127)	5/14/2004 2:27:19 PM
From: J.B.C.	Respond to of 57110

LOL, My kids are kinda like this....."Can we bury (or flush) him in the back yard, Can I get a turtle now?" Jim

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (52127)	5/17/2004 1:04:52 AM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Market Direction Thoughts 5/16/04 Commentary on Previous Reports Due to a busy schedule there was no write up last week, and this write up is slightly abbreviated. Rather than bouncing off of support at 1900, the $COMPQ fell through it. I previously suggested that $SPX 1087 would be tested and had a reasonable probability of breaking, which is indeed what happened. $USD and $TYX have both risen since I suggested that they had topped out. $TYX broke above resistance at 53.3 and then again just below 55. $USD started declining but abruptly reversed upwards above resistance at 91.5. Commentary for The Week Just Ended $COMPQ breached support at 1900 with supporting readings from my market strength and weakness indicators, and probed November support at 1875, finishing its third consecutive down week. Market strength and weakness indicators allow for bouncing, but don’t give reason to expect a bounce other than that we haven’t seen one for a while. $COMPQ daily ORMA is at 21% and rising weakly, with weekly ORMA at 20% and falling. $COMPQ P&F chart is in O’s, and just broke a double bottom, but still above the bullish support line: stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!1.5!!2!20]&pref=G Bud Oscillator shows some signs of a reversal on the weekly charts, but is weak on the daily charts. $SPX daily ORMA is at 18% and rising, with weekly ORMA at 26% and falling. Daily Bud oscillator is non-committal. Weekly Bud oscillator shows some signs of a bounce. Market weakness indicator turned up slightly on Friday, making further declines a definite possibility. P&F chart is in O’s but still on a buy signal: stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!1.5!!2!20]&pref=G General: Bear strength (market weakness indicator) just turned up on Friday, presenting a very real risk of further downside. The $SPX has no meaningful support near here, while the $COMPQ has stairstep-like support. Ever slid down a staircase on your behind? It can be a jolting experience. There are many straws of hope lying around, but we have been gong down and may well continue to do so. We have still not seen a high-fear day that might precede a meaningful rally. There is little reason to be long much besides energy and precious metals right here. Market strength is almost non-existent at this time. P&F BP’s BPINDU is in O’s and on its way down (with a long way to go): stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!2.0!!2!20]&pref=G VIX - Daily: ORMA is falling at 76%, which leaves the door open for a reversal. Bud Oscillator is indeterminate. - Weekly: ORMA oscillator is at 56% and rising, which is neutral or short-term bearish for the markets. Weekly view of the Bud oscillator puts us in the neighborhood where a market reversal upward can occur. Promising/dismal sectors: I continue to see energy sectors as reasonable plays, and precious metals have regained some attraction. $XCI looks particularly dismal. Weekly ORMA oscillator for $USD is extremely overbought on the weekly charts, and Bud oscillator is overbought on both daily and weekly. $TYX had been similarly overbought on weekly ORMA ten times since early 1994. Six of the previous nine resulted in steep declines, on one occasion it treaded water for a while, once it continued rising for some six months, and the other time we were early in a substantial ascent. So, do you feel lucky, punk? Bud oscillator is overbought on daily and weekly chart, but the prior year comparisons are not as easily made. Weekly Bud oscillator offers hope for a reversal on many charts, but I’d like to see some support from market strength/weakness indicators before I go along with Bud on this. Everything here is my own opinion only, and it’s worth what you paid for it. I’ve been known to be wrong at times. And I’ve been known to be right at least half as often as I’ve been wrong, though I haven’t kept records to support that statement.