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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 2:51:02 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 116555

<<<Bremer recently said that if they ask us, we will leave.>>> Who "they"? Read this #reply-20127048

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 3:54:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Thoughts on Treasuries (basically a rehash of stuff I said earlier today) Message 20130794

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 4:18:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on the Carry Trade Date: Fri May 14 2004 12:02 trotsky (frustrated@yield curve) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved regarding mortgages, the benchmark securities are FNM's agency bonds. w.r.t. recent developments in the yield curve, the main reason that yields of shorter maturities have risen more sharply than those of langer dated ones is that the so-called 'carry trade' is concentrated in the 2 and 5 year notes. part of this trade had to be unwound due to mounting capital losses, as these trades are HIGHLY leveraged ( up to 50:1 reportedly ) . otoh, the recent back-up in yields will very likely result in new carry trades being put on, as the current spread is very enticing. i still maintain that the coming bust of the housing bubble will occur IN SPITE of rates falling again. Japan is showing the way...

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 4:21:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Houston Ready to go Bankrupt? Message 20130178

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 4:23:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on Treasuries and housing buying the bond now, absolutely. with the treasury auctions out of the way, UP is the path of least resistance imo, especially with everybody bearish as hell. regarding the real estate bubble, the first CRACKS are in evidence with the recent slide in homebuilder and mortgage finance shares. but note that even if this bubble has peaked (i think it has, but can't be certain of that) it will take a while for this becoming a topic at cocktail parties (which is the major 'recognition' parameter). mainly because transactions in RE are not instantaneous such as stock market tansactions. also, RE busts tend to begin in one or two areas, and the slowly spread from there. when properties have been sitting with for sale signs for 6 months or longer, and are still not sold in spite of askling prices dropping and dropping, then the critical moment will have arrived. note btw. that i believe a housing bust will come CONCURRENT with falling interest rates, not rising ones as is generally assumed.

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 4:37:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on BGO Message 20130234

To: redfish who wrote (6389)	5/14/2004 4:49:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Gold I believe for the first time in a long time we have the potential for a decent rally here. Sentiment has really turned in one week. Not saying it WILL happen, only saying that overwhelming bullish sentiment in the face of declines is now gone. Big specs and small specs are both shorting heavily (although net they are quite long). There has been mammoth long liquidation of contracts. In addition, there is finally fuel for a short squeeze. Action today in treasuries and the EURO is supportive for a rally in gold IMO (bear in mind one day does not make a trend) cftc.gov