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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (96378)5/14/2004 3:51:58 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 209892
 
TNX/TYX........First daily decline in yields of any substance in the past couple of months........Easing of those "interest rate fears" we keep hearing about ......and that are supposed to have been the main culprit in knocking the market down.???????

One day does not a trend make BUT....
This is the first day in a long time stocks and bonds and everything else did not rise and fall together.

I posted on my board that perhaps we start seeing a more "normal" market. Stocks up, Treasuries down. Perhaps as much as necessary of the carry trade has now been unwound. Perhaps all it means is that the mortgage market has FINALLY got all of its hedges reworked to the idea that there will be less refinancings.

There was a strong FA reason for this reversal BTW. Inventories at an all time high and potentially customer buying slowing (it did in April is that a trend change or an anomily).

We could (and should) IMO get into a situation where bonds rally and stocks fall as stock prices are absurd and bonds reflect far more tightening, far faster, than is likely to happen.

Mish