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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6399)	5/14/2004 5:09:24 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

>>EVERYONE (except me) thinks crude is going much higher<< I was just telling a buddy if I had a commodities acount, I'd probably start getting a few puts ... I think stocks are going down, gold is going up and bonds are going up -- but I'm a pretty nutty dude <g> at least, after next week ...

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6399)	5/14/2004 6:49:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Could be we get one more massive liquidity induced blast where everything goes parabolic, before it all drops into the $hitter.....(hopefully in time for Erection Day, but we'll see).... I think the days where EVERYTHING goes up (but the $) are over. Mish

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6399)	5/17/2004 9:51:44 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Patron: Good comments. The bet at this end is: - second half of 2004 flops due to AWOL consumer. Deflationary forces re-emerge globally - the buck tanks. - gold soars - semis continue to plunge like igneous rocks tossed into a pond. airline stocks crash and burn (crummy balance sheets, continuing heavy losses, sky rocketing fuel prices, flying public "fed up" with airport security delays, massive global excess capacity, etc.) financials (finally) get their just rewards, and crater, (led by FNM and COF perhaps?) as unemployed consumers toss "mcmansion" keys to the banks and real estate prices swoon. - oil prices FALL (maybe even dramatically and perhaps before year end) due to reduced global demand. - all indexes end the year at LOWER prices than seen at previous lows Thank goodness I am an optimist. (g) Best, Earlie