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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CharlieChina who wrote (7016)5/14/2004 8:54:22 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60903
 
86.7% probability the Dow takes-off with 0.75% gains(i.e DOW index up +75 points) over the first 60 minutes

LOL wow, such apparent precision, I am impressed.

<font size="20pt">Not</font>

Neither would anyone else be, if they knew that:

- the average daily range on the DOW is well over 100 points these days. The 5 period average is ~ 140 at the moment. Since march approx only 11 days have had a range less than 100 points.

- Mondays tend to trade up, on balance, from the open for at least a little while. Where they close is another matter.

- since the start of this year, even including the down trend of late, there are far more "up" range mondays than "down" range mondays. 7 up, only 3 down. 3/7 gives 70% chance of getting it right.

- since April last year, there have been 29 such "up" mondays, where Monday's high was 70 points or more > than Friday's close. There were 11 days where Monday's low was 75 points or more < Fridays close. Interestingly most of those occurred during the uptrend from April 03 through to the end of 2003.

Prior to turning off the switches,... today was used to project a forecast for Monday's opening, based on this past Wednesday, Thursday and Fridays's trading action,... with a high concentration on the past 12 minutes Friday's trading transaction of baskets within specific clustering ranges,... hence,...

LOL to the man who uses nothing more than free web sites and web charts -- yet claims to be able to discern what big houses and program trading are up to. Neat trick to pull off, without any substantive data.

this scenario assumes we have no terror act that produces over 250 dead bodies this coming weekend,...

Let me repeat what others have said, you truly are disturbed.



To: CharlieChina who wrote (7016)5/15/2004 10:16:33 AM
From: CharlieChina  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 60903
 
Saturday Morning Coffee,... with FIZZ

In addition,... to
Message 20131011

Going through the clustering-data, last night,... it seems we may have a follow through to Monday morning spring,...

It seems that we have a 71.7% probability that the Dow should have a 200+ week, beginning Monday,...

It also seems that, it may hit the FIZZ number of 10,250 this coming week,...

However, unclear whether it closes above that number,... either way,.. this forthcoming week should provide an excellent week for the day and swing traders,...

Monday Morning,... from the start,... should begin,... very strong within the first 60 minutes,... +75 or +100

Once agin, assuming no terror acts that produces over 250 dead bodies,...

Best of the FIZZ, to ya,...